Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State

Jacksonville State

5-25-2 · 3-0 C-USA · ATS 3-2-2

8:00 PM ET

Wed, Oct 28 · ESPN2

Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces

WIN PROB

—

New Mexico State

3-43-4 · 2-1 C-USA · ATS 4-3

Spread: JXST −2.5; Open −3.5 · −122
Total: 49.5; Open 48.5 · o −110
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: JXST −2.5; open −3.5
Model: —
Total: 49.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
New Mexico State passvs Jacksonville State pass Dvs JXST pass DBIGGEST EDGE	122nd−0.14	79th+0.02	35	JXST +6.1
Jacksonville State passvs New Mexico State pass Dvs NMSU pass D	19th+0.13	51st−0.03	32	JXST +4.5
Jacksonville State runvs New Mexico State run Dvs NMSU run D	109th−0.06	66th−0.01	36	NMSU +3.5
New Mexico State runvs Jacksonville State run Dvs JXST run D	90th−0.03	91st+0.04	33	NMSU +0.5

BIGGEST EDGE · JXST +6.1

The Jacksonville State pass defense vs New Mexico State's passing game

New Mexico State gains −0.02 EPA a play on the pass (122nd); Jacksonville State allows +0.13 (79th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNew Mexico State

NMSU OFF

When New Mexico State has the ball

DefenseJacksonville State

JXST DEF

−0.08124thEPA / play96th+0.12
39.0%108thSuccess rate91st44.0%
1.3157thExplosiveness49th1.28
+0.0490thRush EPA / play91st+0.11
−0.02122ndPass EPA / dropback79th+0.13
43.5%124thStandard downs SR101st49.6%
30.8%73rdPassing downs SR57th30.3%
3.2271stLine yards81st3.19
15.7%113thHavoc rate74th14.2%
3.71103rdPoints / opportunity43rd3.66
59%90thRed zone TD rate50th55%

Jacksonville State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (103rd vs 43rd).

OffenseJacksonville State

JXST OFF

When Jacksonville State has the ball

DefenseNew Mexico State

NMSU DEF

+0.0856thEPA / play57th+0.03
44.4%40thSuccess rate65th42.0%
1.2879thExplosiveness66th1.29
+0.01109thRush EPA / play66th+0.06
+0.2519thPass EPA / dropback51st+0.08
49.6%37thStandard downs SR62nd46.7%
31.3%58thPassing downs SR79th31.1%
3.2757thLine yards29th2.78
13.7%74thHavoc rate51st15.0%
4.9429thPoints / opportunity117th4.71
52%116thRed zone TD rate94th67%

Jacksonville State's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (29th vs 117th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Jacksonville State and New Mexico State, season to date
Metric	JXSTJXST	NMSUNMSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.9	29.5	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	60.4	64.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	49.6%	47.9%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+2.1%	−2.1%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	49.7%	41.3%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	32%	30%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:12	30:52	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 27.8	Own 28.3	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →