- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  James Madison passvs Troy pass Dvs TROY pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 26th+0.11 | 106th+0.08 | 32 | JMU +8.7 |
  Troy passvs James Madison pass Dvs JMU pass D | 113th−0.10 | 45th−0.05 | 31 | JMU +6.6 |
| James Madison runvs Troy run Dvs TROY run D | 37th+0.05 | 77th+0.01 | 36 | JMU +3.5 |
| Troy runvs James Madison run Dvs JMU run D | 45th+0.04 | 24th−0.07 | 38 | JMU +1.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · JMU +8.7
James Madison's passing game vs the Troy pass defense
James Madison gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (26th); Troy allows +0.19 (106th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When James Madison has the ball
- +0.1430thEPA / play107th+0.13
- 43.5%54thSuccess rate112th45.6%
- 1.3531stExplosiveness56th1.29
- +0.1237thRush EPA / play77th+0.08
- +0.2326thPass EPA / dropback106th+0.19
- 46.7%74thStandard downs SR124th51.4%
- 34.9%15thPassing downs SR35th29.5%
- 3.3152ndLine yards61st3.02
- 10.1%17thHavoc rate105th12.9%
- 4.6453rdPoints / opportunity42nd3.64
- 71%35thRed zone TD rate49th55%
James Madison's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (17th vs 105th).
When Troy has the ball
- +0.0383rdEPA / play42nd+0.01
- 42.0%68thSuccess rate40th40.3%
- 1.2698thExplosiveness63rd1.29
- +0.1145thRush EPA / play24th0.00
- +0.02113thPass EPA / dropback45th+0.07
- 47.4%60thStandard downs SR30th45.0%
- 29.4%101stPassing downs SR64th30.6%
- 3.2466thLine yards52nd2.96
- 16.6%122ndHavoc rate40th15.6%
- 3.50119thPoints / opportunity48th3.69
- 61%80thRed zone TD rate49th55%
James Madison's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (122nd vs 40th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TROYTROY | JMUJMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.0 | 24.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.0 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.7% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −5.4% | +0.7% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 41.7% | 46.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 20% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:44 | 28:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.0 | Own 35.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · DUE ~MON · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 T-3 report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 1 DOUBTFUL · 2 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE
- Out for seasonJackson Worley · TE
- Out for seasonJoe Lott · S
- Out for seasonJermaine Paramore · DT
- DoubtfulTK Keyes · WR
- QuestionableGoose Crowder · QB
- QuestionableTai Terrell · CB
- ProbablePatrick Screws Jr. · OL
Week 8 game-day report2 OUT
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