Troy
3-33-3 · 1-1 Sun Belt · ATS 2-4
7:30 PM ET
Thu, Oct 29 · ESPN2
Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg
WIN PROB
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James Madison
7-17-1 · 4-1 Sun Belt · ATS 6-2
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  James Madison passvs Troy pass Dvs TROY pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 27th+0.11 | 106th+0.08 | 32 | JMU +8.7 |
  Troy passvs James Madison pass Dvs JMU pass D | 112th−0.10 | 44th−0.05 | 31 | JMU +6.6 |
| James Madison runvs Troy run Dvs TROY run D | 38th+0.05 | 77th+0.01 | 36 | JMU +3.5 |
| Troy runvs James Madison run Dvs JMU run D | 45th+0.04 | 24th−0.07 | 38 | JMU +1.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · JMU +8.7
James Madison's passing game vs the Troy pass defense
James Madison gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (27th); Troy allows +0.19 (106th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseJames Madison
JMU OFFWhen James Madison has the ball
DefenseTroy
TROY DEF- +0.1528thEPA / play105th+0.13
- 43.5%53rdSuccess rate113th45.5%
- 1.3530thExplosiveness55th1.29
- +0.1238thRush EPA / play77th+0.08
- +0.2327thPass EPA / dropback106th+0.19
- 46.7%75thStandard downs SR125th51.4%
- 34.8%15thPassing downs SR35th29.4%
- 3.3150thLine yards61st3.02
- 10.1%16thHavoc rate105th12.9%
- 4.6451stPoints / opportunity40th3.64
- +0.1737thEarly-down EPA / play55th+0.01
- 37.6%93rd3rd-down conversion60th37.3%
- 12.9%32ndStuff rate68th16.6%
- 3.4%35thSack rate113th3.8%
- 71%34thRed zone TD rate48th55%
James Madison's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (16th vs 105th).
OffenseTroy
TROY OFFWhen Troy has the ball
DefenseJames Madison
JMU DEF- +0.0382ndEPA / play43rd+0.01
- 41.9%67thSuccess rate41st40.3%
- 1.2796thExplosiveness62nd1.29
- +0.1145thRush EPA / play24th0.00
- +0.02112thPass EPA / dropback44th+0.07
- 47.4%59thStandard downs SR30th45.0%
- 29.3%101stPassing downs SR65th30.6%
- 3.2466thLine yards52nd2.96
- 16.6%122ndHavoc rate40th15.6%
- 3.50119thPoints / opportunity46th3.69
- +0.0870thEarly-down EPA / play23rd−0.10
- 37.4%96th3rd-down conversion74th39.1%
- 16.8%87thStuff rate80th15.7%
- 4.4%53rdSack rate40th6.9%
- 61%81stRed zone TD rate48th55%
James Madison's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (122nd vs 40th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TROYTROY | JMUJMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.0 | 24.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.0 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.7% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −5.4% | +0.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 41.7% | 46.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 20% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:44 | 28:16 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.0 | Own 35.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%