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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

Sun Belt · 7-1 · 4-1 CONF · ATS 6-2 · O/U 5-3

James Madison Dukes

HC Billy Napier (1st yr) · OC Cam Aiken · DC Robert Bala

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (7 OF 8) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%

Power rating8.624th
CFP odds54%−21
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→BUBBLE
Proj. wins10.3of 12
Fan pulse—12 of 30 scored

Sun Belt · 7-1 · 4-1 CONF · ATS 6-2 · O/U 5-3

James Madison

Dukes · HC Billy Napier (1st yr) · starts in 11 (7 of 8) · base D 4-2-5

Power rating8.624th
CFP odds · outlook54%−21NEEDS TITLE→BUBBLE
Proj. wins10.3of 12
Fan pulse—12 of 30 scored

James Madison

7-1 · 4-1 Sun Belt

POWER RATING8.624th in FBS
CFP ODDS54%−21 this week
PROJ. WINS10.3of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→BUBBLE

1 loss now · CFP 54% in sims · CCG 79% · title 57%

FAN PULSE—12 of 30 scored

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Latest from the beat

JAMES MADISON · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

James Madison schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1LibertyLibertyW20–13−6−6W+0.0938%36%59%5039.0
2WagnerWagnerW87–3−46.5−46.5W+0.6057%21%100%6144.7
3at San Diego Stateat San Diego StateW26–13+3+3W+0.2247%31%71%7223.4
4at Old Dominionat Old DominionW46–20−7−7W+0.4241%24%94%7844.3
5MarshallMarshallW45–17−16.5−16.5W+0.4153%46%91%6641.4
6at Georgia Southernat Georgia SouthernW27–24−7−7L−0.0742%46%55%7725.3
7Georgia StateGeorgia StateW49–22−7.5−7.5W+0.6047%45%92%6726.2
8at App Stateat App StateL31–34−12.5−12.5L−0.0339%42%34%7521.2
9TroyTroyNEXTTHU 7:30 ESPN2THU 7:30−18.4 proj−18.4————87%——
10at Southern Missat Southern MissNOV 5NOV 5−17.1 proj−17.185%
11at UConnat UConnNOV 14NOV 14−7.3 proj−7.367%
12BYE
13Coastal CarolinaCoastal CarolinaNOV 28NOV 28−18.6 proj−18.687%

Success rate by down & distance

1st71%n 7100%n 541%n 19825%n 12
2nd64%n 2849%n 3551%n 8129%n 28
3rd55%n 2941%n 2942%n 198%n 24
4th90%n 100%n 1—n 0100%n 1

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 502 OF 507 PLAYS502 OF 507 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun100%100%47%+0.1544%
No-huddle82%82%49%+0.1544%
Huddle18%18%40%+0.1547%
StartersSTARTERS
117 of 8 games121 of 8BASE D4-2-58 of 8
117 of 84-2-5base D · 8 of 8

In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 47 % of the time. No-huddle on 82 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 7 of 8 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (8 of 8).

Next game

THU 7:30 ESPN2 · BRIDGEFORTH STADIUMTHU 7:30 ESPN2

vs TroyLINE—MODEL−18.4WP87%

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
Sun Belt crews−0.6 to +0.2 · 46 games−0.2−0.6 to +0.246NOISE
ACC crews— · 4 games+2.6—4NOISE
American crews— · 2 games−0.2—2NOISE
C-USA crews— · 2 games+1.1—2NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 2 games−1.9—2NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 1 game−1.4—1NOISE
SEC crews— · 1 game+3.0—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTMarshall Lewis−1.2 / g · 4 games · noise−1.2 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTScott Broadway+1.2 / g · 4 games · noise+1.2 / g · 4 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on James Madison than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 8 of 9 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 8 of 9 games · + = more on James Madison than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

James Madison offense statistics
MetricStat
James MadisonJMU
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.1530th+0.06
Success rate43.5%54th42.3%
Explosiveness1.3531st1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.1237th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.2326th+0.11
Passing downs SR34.9%15th31.1%
Line yards3.3152nd3.21
Sack rate allowed3.4%35th5.3%
3rd-down conversion38%93rd41%
Points / opportunity4.6453rd4.27
Red zone TD rate71%35th63%
Seconds / play24.817th28.0