Skip to content
Slate
FRI 7:30 · ESPN · ORLANDO
Baylor
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 4-2
7:30 PM ET
Fri, Oct 30 · ESPN
FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando
WIN PROB
—
 
UCF
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 4-2
Spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model line
—
 
Win probability
—
Projected score
—
 
Projected plays
—
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
—
 
Model
—
 
Total
—
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Baylor runvs UCF run Dvs UCF run DBIGGEST EDGE
118th−0.0827th−0.0730UCF +6.1
UCF runvs Baylor run Dvs BAY run D
75th−0.017th−0.1134BAY +5.9
UCF passvs Baylor pass Dvs BAY pass D
72nd−0.0140th−0.0634BAY +3.3
Baylor passvs UCF pass Dvs UCF pass D
56th+0.0142nd−0.0538UCF +2.3

BIGGEST EDGE · UCF +6.1

The UCF run defense vs Baylor's run game

Baylor gains −0.01 EPA a play on the run (118th); UCF allows +0.00 (27th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUCF
UCF OFF

When UCF has the ball

DefenseBaylor
BAY DEF
  • +0.0382ndEPA / play27th−0.03
  • 41.2%77thSuccess rate14th37.6%
  • 1.2975thExplosiveness103rd1.33
  • +0.0675thRush EPA / play7th−0.04
  • +0.1172ndPass EPA / dropback40th+0.06
  • 45.0%106thStandard downs SR9th41.7%
  • 31.8%51stPassing downs SR58th30.4%
  • 2.91114thLine yards8th2.61
  • 13.4%65thHavoc rate6th20.1%
  • 5.693rdPoints / opportunity32nd3.48
  • 75%15thRed zone TD rate5th38%

Baylor's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (114th vs 8th).

OffenseBaylor
BAY OFF

When Baylor has the ball

DefenseUCF
UCF DEF
  • +0.0477thEPA / play26th−0.03
  • 39.7%101stSuccess rate33rd39.4%
  • 1.3816thExplosiveness36th1.26
  • −0.01118thRush EPA / play27th0.00
  • +0.1356thPass EPA / dropback42nd+0.06
  • 43.9%120thStandard downs SR35th45.3%
  • 31.0%72ndPassing downs SR43rd29.8%
  • 2.89119thLine yards13th2.67
  • 15.5%108thHavoc rate45th15.4%
  • 3.55117thPoints / opportunity26th3.35
  • 46%131stRed zone TD rate29th50%

UCF's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (119th vs 13th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Baylor and UCF, season to date
MetricBAYBAYUCFUCFFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral22.630.628.9
Plays per gamePlays per game81.060.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral54.6%51.3%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+3.0%+4.8%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral48.0%51.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations33%31%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:1328:1330:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 33.0Own 32.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~TUE · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Baylor

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~TUE (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~TUE (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT

UCF

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~TUE (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~TUE (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report7 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE · 5 PROBABLE

Broadcast

ESPN
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
76°
mph NE · G22
13
Precip
23%
Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestBAY 13d · UCF 20dBOTH OFF BYE