Big 12 · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
Baylor Bears
HC Dave Aranda (7th yr) · OC Jake Spavital · DC Joe Klanderman
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (6 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 100%
Big 12 · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4
Baylor
Bears · HC Dave Aranda (7th yr) · starts in 11 (6 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
Baylor
4-2 · 2-1 Big 12
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 2% · title 1%
Latest from the beat
BAYLOR · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   vs Auburn · Atlantavs Auburn | L16–17 | +6.5+6.5 | W | +0.03 | 39% | 38% | 51% | 98 | 21.0 | |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&MPrairie View A&M | W44–3 | −37.5−37.5 | W | +0.77 | 62% | 11% | 99% | 83 | 24.4 | |
| 3 |   Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech | W36–19 | −20.5−20.5 | L | +0.16 | 38% | 30% | 84% | 68 | 24.4 | |
| 4 |   ColoradoColorado | W23–13 | −8.5−8.5 | W | −0.05 | 35% | 35% | 72% | 74 | 23.3 | |
| 5 |   at Arizona Stateat Arizona State | W55–19 | +3.5+3.5 | W | +0.56 | 43% | 39% | 96% | 78 | 23.5 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   TCUTCU | L6–17 | −3.5−3.5 | L | −0.16 | 25% | 36% | 30% | 85 | 21.2 | |
| 8 |   at Kansasat KansasNEXT | SAT 1:00 TNTSAT 1:00 | −1−1 | — | — | — | — | 53% | 150 | — | |
| 9 |   at UCFat UCF | OCT 30OCT 30 | +0.7 proj+0.7 | 48% | |||||||
| 10 |   Iowa StateIowa State | NOV 7NOV 7 | −6 proj−6 | 64% | |||||||
| 11 |   at BYUat BYU | NOV 14NOV 14 | +15.5 proj+15.5 | 17% | |||||||
| 12 |   Texas TechTexas Tech | NOV 21NOV 21 | +6.9 proj+6.9 | 34% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Houstonat Houston | NOV 28NOV 28 | +10.5 proj+10.5 | 26% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 417 OF 419 PLAYS417 OF 419 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun100% | 100% | 56% | +0.03 | 38% |
| Under center0% | 0% | 100% | −0.38 | 0% |
| No-huddle99% | 99% | 57% | +0.03 | 38% |
| Huddle1% | 1% | 25% | −0.17 | 25% |
In shotgun on 100 % of tagged snaps, passing 56 % of the time (+0.03 EPA a play; −0.38 under center). No-huddle on 99 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 6 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 1:00 TNT · MEMORIAL STADIUMSAT 1:00 TNT
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big 12 crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 47 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 47 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 1 game | −2.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −1.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −1.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 1 game | +1.1 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −0.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | +0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | +1.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Baylor than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Baylor than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | BaylorBAY | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.04 | 77th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 39.7% | 101st | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.38 | 16th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.01 | 118th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.13 | 56th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 31.0% | 72nd | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.89 | 119th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.7% | 58th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40% | 69th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.55 | 117th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 46% | 131st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 21.9 | 1st | 28.0 |