Stanford
4-44-4 · 2-3 ACC · ATS 3-5
3:15 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville
WIN PROB
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Louisville
4-34-3 · 3-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Louisville passvs Stanford pass Dvs STAN pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 16th+0.14 | 111th+0.09 | 32 | LOU +10.8 |
| Louisville runvs Stanford run Dvs STAN run D | 15th+0.10 | 130th+0.10 | 36 | LOU +10.7 |
  Stanford runvs Louisville run Dvs LOU run D | 124th−0.10 | 61st−0.02 | 29 | LOU +4.9 |
| Stanford passvs Louisville pass Dvs LOU pass D | 85th−0.04 | 89th+0.04 | 39 | LOU +0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · LOU +10.8
Louisville's passing game vs the Stanford pass defense
Louisville gains +0.26 EPA a play on the pass (16th); Stanford allows +0.21 (111th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseLouisville
LOU OFFWhen Louisville has the ball
DefenseStanford
STAN DEF- +0.1920thEPA / play124th+0.19
- 46.0%31stSuccess rate120th46.5%
- 1.415thExplosiveness85th1.31
- +0.1715thRush EPA / play130th+0.17
- +0.2616thPass EPA / dropback111th+0.21
- 50.8%23rdStandard downs SR106th49.9%
- 32.3%40thPassing downs SR135th36.4%
- 3.1390thLine yards105th3.33
- 17.0%124thHavoc rate129th11.1%
- 4.6746thPoints / opportunity134th5.39
- +0.279thEarly-down EPA / play127th+0.17
- 46.1%31st3rd-down conversion131st48.8%
- 20.3%120thStuff rate107th13.9%
- 6.8%99thSack rate123rd3.0%
- 73%25thRed zone TD rate134th85%
Louisville's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (9th vs 127th).
OffenseStanford
STAN OFFWhen Stanford has the ball
DefenseLouisville
LOU DEF- −0.01102ndEPA / play63rd+0.04
- 38.8%112thSuccess rate48th40.8%
- 1.2971stExplosiveness77th1.31
- −0.03124thRush EPA / play61st+0.05
- +0.0785thPass EPA / dropback89th+0.15
- 46.2%82ndStandard downs SR39th45.6%
- 26.8%130thPassing downs SR86th31.5%
- 3.0797thLine yards101st3.30
- 11.5%30thHavoc rate80th13.8%
- 4.1578thPoints / opportunity55th3.78
- +0.0292ndEarly-down EPA / play117th+0.13
- 34.1%108th3rd-down conversion45th35.4%
- 18.4%102ndStuff rate131st10.9%
- 3.4%36thSack rate46th6.4%
- 64%70thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Louisville's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: success rate (112th vs 48th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | STANSTAN | LOULOU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.6 | 28.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.5 | 61.6 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.3% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | −1.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 51.2% | 43.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 25% | 10% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:00 | 28:40 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 25.4 | Own 29.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%