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SAT 3:15 · ACC NETWORK · LOUISVILLE
Stanford
4-44-4 · 2-3 ACC · ATS 3-5
3:15 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville
WIN PROB
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Louisville
4-34-3 · 3-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Louisville passvs Stanford pass Dvs STAN pass DBIGGEST EDGE
16th+0.14111th+0.0932LOU +10.8
Louisville runvs Stanford run Dvs STAN run D
15th+0.10130th+0.1036LOU +10.7
Stanford runvs Louisville run Dvs LOU run D
124th−0.1061st−0.0229LOU +4.9
Stanford passvs Louisville pass Dvs LOU pass D
85th−0.0489th+0.0439LOU +0.5

BIGGEST EDGE · LOU +10.8

Louisville's passing game vs the Stanford pass defense

Louisville gains +0.26 EPA a play on the pass (16th); Stanford allows +0.21 (111th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseLouisville
LOU OFF

When Louisville has the ball

DefenseStanford
STAN DEF
  • +0.1920thEPA / play124th+0.19
  • 46.0%31stSuccess rate120th46.5%
  • 1.415thExplosiveness85th1.31
  • +0.1715thRush EPA / play130th+0.17
  • +0.2616thPass EPA / dropback111th+0.21
  • 50.8%23rdStandard downs SR106th49.9%
  • 32.3%40thPassing downs SR135th36.4%
  • 3.1390thLine yards105th3.33
  • 17.0%124thHavoc rate129th11.1%
  • 4.6746thPoints / opportunity134th5.39
  • 73%25thRed zone TD rate134th85%

Louisville's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (15th vs 130th).

OffenseStanford
STAN OFF

When Stanford has the ball

DefenseLouisville
LOU DEF
  • −0.01102ndEPA / play63rd+0.04
  • 38.8%112thSuccess rate48th40.8%
  • 1.2971stExplosiveness77th1.31
  • −0.03124thRush EPA / play61st+0.05
  • +0.0785thPass EPA / dropback89th+0.15
  • 46.2%82ndStandard downs SR39th45.6%
  • 26.8%130thPassing downs SR86th31.5%
  • 3.0797thLine yards101st3.30
  • 11.5%30thHavoc rate80th13.8%
  • 4.1578thPoints / opportunity55th3.78
  • 64%70thRed zone TD rate28th50%

Louisville's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (112th vs 48th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Stanford and Louisville, season to date
MetricSTANSTANLOULOUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral25.628.628.9
Plays per gamePlays per game64.561.665.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral54.3%47.3%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+3.0%−1.9%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral51.2%43.9%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations25%10%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession28:0028:4030:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 25.4Own 29.3Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Stanford

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report8 OUT FOR SEASON · 4 OUT

Louisville

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report1 OUT FOR SEASON · 9 OUT

Broadcast

ACC Network
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestSTAN 8d · LOU 14dLOU OFF BYE