Temple
2-52-5 · 1-2 American · ATS 4-2-1
3:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville
WIN PROB
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East Carolina
3-43-4 · 1-2 American · ATS 3-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Temple passvs East Carolina pass Dvs ECU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 79th−0.03 | 34th−0.07 | 27 | ECU +3.9 |
  East Carolina passvs Temple pass Dvs TEM pass D | 109th−0.08 | 128th+0.15 | 32 | ECU +2.9 |
| East Carolina runvs Temple run Dvs TEM run D | 99th−0.04 | 115th+0.07 | 36 | ECU +1.3 |
| Temple runvs East Carolina run Dvs ECU run D | 26th+0.08 | 28th−0.07 | 41 | TEM +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ECU +3.9
The East Carolina pass defense vs Temple's passing game
Temple gains +0.08 EPA a play on the pass (79th); East Carolina allows +0.05 (34th). About 27 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseEast Carolina
ECU OFFWhen East Carolina has the ball
DefenseTemple
TEM DEF- −0.04110thEPA / play128th+0.20
- 38.1%126thSuccess rate127th47.3%
- 1.3341stExplosiveness92nd1.32
- +0.0399thRush EPA / play115th+0.14
- +0.03109thPass EPA / dropback128th+0.26
- 44.1%118thStandard downs SR98th49.5%
- 27.8%117thPassing downs SR136th37.1%
- 3.0698thLine yards60th3.02
- 15.0%100thHavoc rate136th9.2%
- 3.58115thPoints / opportunity109th4.61
- −0.07121stEarly-down EPA / play114th+0.12
- 32.6%122nd3rd-down conversion135th50.6%
- 16.7%84thStuff rate106th14.2%
- 5.1%77thSack rate101st4.5%
- 54%107thRed zone TD rate102nd68%
East Carolina's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (41st vs 92nd).
OffenseTemple
TEM OFFWhen Temple has the ball
DefenseEast Carolina
ECU DEF- +0.0668thEPA / play37th0.00
- 40.7%85thSuccess rate30th39.1%
- 1.3249thExplosiveness100th1.33
- +0.1426thRush EPA / play28th0.00
- +0.0879thPass EPA / dropback34th+0.05
- 46.3%80thStandard downs SR19th43.3%
- 30.0%89thPassing downs SR82nd31.3%
- 3.5818thLine yards5th2.46
- 11.3%27thHavoc rate11th18.4%
- 3.9789thPoints / opportunity90th4.27
- +0.2026thEarly-down EPA / play28th−0.08
- 43.0%53rd3rd-down conversion15th30.4%
- 14.4%52ndStuff rate1st29.0%
- 7.8%115thSack rate22nd7.6%
- 61%81stRed zone TD rate60th58%
East Carolina's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (115th vs 22nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TEMTEM | ECUECU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.1 | 25.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 58.1 | 66.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 39.6% | 46.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −11.1% | −2.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 36.0% | 40.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 21% | 23% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:17 | 27:14 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.9 | Own 29.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%