Northwestern
#24 · 5-1#24 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
TBA
Sat, Oct 31
Autzen Stadium · Eugene
WIN PROB
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Oregon
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- ORE −7.5
- Open −7.5
- Total
- 52.5
- Open 50.5
- Model line
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- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ORE −7.5
- open −7.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 52.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oregon passvs Northwestern pass Dvs NU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 57th+0.01 | 36th−0.07 | 38 | NU +2.9 |
  Northwestern passvs Oregon pass Dvs ORE pass D | 14th+0.15 | 7th−0.18 | 30 | ORE +1.3 |
| Oregon runvs Northwestern run Dvs NU run D | 103rd−0.05 | 94th+0.04 | 30 | NU +0.2 |
| Northwestern runvs Oregon run Dvs ORE run D | 9th+0.11 | 9th−0.11 | 38 | ORE +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · NU +2.9
The Northwestern pass defense vs Oregon's passing game
Oregon gains +0.13 EPA a play on the pass (57th); Northwestern allows +0.05 (36th). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseOregon
ORE OFFWhen Oregon has the ball
DefenseNorthwestern
NU DEF- +0.0191stEPA / play52nd+0.03
- 41.0%79thSuccess rate110th45.2%
- 1.2789thExplosiveness11th1.20
- +0.02103rdRush EPA / play94th+0.11
- +0.1357thPass EPA / dropback36th+0.05
- 46.8%74thStandard downs SR115th50.3%
- 29.7%95thPassing downs SR72nd30.9%
- 2.95111thLine yards94th3.23
- 15.7%110thHavoc rate63rd14.6%
- 4.7841stPoints / opportunity23rd3.24
- +0.0581stEarly-down EPA / play78th+0.05
- 32.9%119th3rd-down conversion69th38.8%
- 18.7%106thStuff rate62nd17.0%
- 3.5%37thSack rate117th3.6%
- 59%88thRed zone TD rate10th44%
Northwestern's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (37th vs 117th).
OffenseNorthwestern
NU OFFWhen Northwestern has the ball
DefenseOregon
ORE DEF- +0.239thEPA / play3rd−0.13
- 48.0%13thSuccess rate6th35.7%
- 1.3536thExplosiveness60th1.29
- +0.189thRush EPA / play9th−0.04
- +0.2614thPass EPA / dropback7th−0.06
- 51.6%19thStandard downs SR3rd40.7%
- 34.7%18thPassing downs SR40th29.6%
- 3.2563rdLine yards19th2.73
- 14.8%95thHavoc rate30th16.2%
- 5.1715thPoints / opportunity71st4.03
- +0.303rdEarly-down EPA / play63rd+0.02
- 47.6%27th3rd-down conversion3rd27.5%
- 16.9%89thStuff rate56th17.4%
- 8.8%126thSack rate65th5.8%
- 73%24thRed zone TD rate12th45%
Oregon's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (95th vs 30th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | NUNU | OREORE | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 32.7 | 24.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 61.2 | 69.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 36.8% | 53.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −10.8% | −0.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 31.6% | 49.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 17% | 31% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:46 | 28:57 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.8 | Own 31.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%