Big Ten · #24 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-1
Northwestern Wildcats
HC David Braun (4th yr) · OC Chip Kelly · DC Tim McGarigle
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 5) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 66%
Big Ten · #24 AP · 5-1 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-1
Northwestern
Wildcats · HC David Braun (4th yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 5) · base D 4-2-5
Northwestern
#24 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten
1 loss now · CFP 8% in sims · CCG 4% · title 2%
Latest from the beat
NORTHWESTERN · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   South Dakota StateSouth Dakota State | W34–18 | −13.5−13.5 | W | +0.38 | 50% | 42% | 81% | 54 | 28.8 | |
| 2 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 3 |   ColoradoColorado | W41–7 | −3.5−3.5 | W | +0.67 | 51% | 43% | 99% | 69 | 31.1 | |
| 4 |   at Indianaat Indiana | L23–29 | +20.5+20.5 | W | +0.14 | 43% | 50% | 37% | 54 | 30.6 | |
| 5 |   Penn StatePenn State | W34–13 | +3+3 | W | +0.40 | 60% | 40% | 90% | 66 | 32.7 | |
| 6 |   Ball StateBall State | W45–14 | −34.5−34.5 | L | +0.70 | 57% | 41% | 99% | 54 | 31.6 | |
| 7 |   at Michigan Stateat Michigan State | W24–21 | −7.5−7.5 | L | +0.08 | 43% | 44% | 56% | 70 | 11.0 | |
| 8 |   RutgersRutgersNEXT | SAT 12:00 PeacockSAT 12:00 | −16−16 | — | — | — | — | 84% | 127 | — | |
| 9 |   at Oregonat Oregon | OCT 31OCT 31 | +5.3 proj+5.3 | 37% | |||||||
| 10 |   IowaIowa | NOV 7NOV 7 | −3.4 proj−3.4 | 58% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Ohio Stateat Ohio State | NOV 14NOV 14 | +15.4 proj+15.4 | 18% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Minnesotaat Minnesota | NOV 21NOV 21 | −9.5 proj−9.5 | 72% | |||||||
| 13 |   IllinoisIllinois | NOV 28NOV 28 | −12.2 proj−12.2 | 77% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 334 OF 337 PLAYS334 OF 337 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun66% | 66% | 49% | +0.32 | 49% |
| Under center34% | 34% | 35% | +0.25 | 51% |
| No-huddle20% | 20% | 45% | +0.31 | 48% |
| Huddle80% | 80% | 44% | +0.29 | 50% |
In shotgun on 66 % of tagged snaps, passing 49 % of the time (+0.32 EPA a play; +0.25 under center). No-huddle on 20 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 5 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 12:00 Peacock · RYAN FIELDSAT 12:00 Peacock
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 30 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 30 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +0.3 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | −1.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | +1.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −2.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Northwestern than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 5 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 5 of 7 games · + = more on Northwestern than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | NorthwesternNU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.23 | 9th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 48.0% | 14th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.35 | 35th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.18 | 9th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.26 | 14th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 34.7% | 18th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.25 | 63rd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.8% | 128th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 48% | 27th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.17 | 13th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 73% | 24th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 30.7 | 118th | 28.0 |