Rutgers vs Northwestern

Rutgers

2-42-4 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-3

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · Peacock

Ryan Field · Evanston

WIN PROB

84%

Northwestern

#24 · 5-1#24 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2

Spread: NU −16; Open −16.5 · −109
Total: 59; Open 58.5 · o −110
Model line: NU −16.4; Model total 60.8
Win probability: 84%
Projected score: 22.2 – 38.6; RUTG – NU
Projected plays: 127; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: NU −16; open −16.5
Model: −16.4; NU
Total: 59; model 60.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Northwestern runvs Rutgers run Dvs RUTG run DBIGGEST EDGE	9th+0.11	135th+0.15	36	NU +13.3
Northwestern passvs Rutgers pass Dvs RUTG pass D	14th+0.15	98th+0.05	28	NU +8.0
PaceRUTG 35.3 s · NU 32.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	127	U 2.0
Rutgers passvs Northwestern pass Dvs NU pass D	51st+0.04	35th−0.07	31	NU +1.4
Rutgers runvs Northwestern run Dvs NU run D	101st−0.05	95th+0.04	33	NU +0.2

BIGGEST EDGE · NU +13.3

Northwestern's run game vs the Rutgers run defense

Northwestern gains +0.18 EPA a play on the run (9th); Rutgers allows +0.22 (135th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorthwestern

NU OFF

When Northwestern has the ball

DefenseRutgers

RUTG DEF

+0.239thEPA / play122nd+0.18
48.0%14thSuccess rate124th47.0%
1.3535thExplosiveness84th1.31
+0.189thRush EPA / play135th+0.22
+0.2614thPass EPA / dropback98th+0.17
51.6%20thStandard downs SR129th51.8%
34.7%18thPassing downs SR109th33.0%
3.2563rdLine yards129th3.57
14.8%95thHavoc rate100th13.0%
5.1713thPoints / opportunity113th4.69
73%24thRed zone TD rate72nd62%

Northwestern's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (9th vs 135th).

OffenseRutgers

RUTG OFF

When Rutgers has the ball

DefenseNorthwestern

NU DEF

+0.0666thEPA / play54th+0.03
44.2%44thSuccess rate109th45.2%
1.3156thExplosiveness10th1.20
+0.02101stRush EPA / play95th+0.11
+0.1551stPass EPA / dropback35th+0.05
47.5%58thStandard downs SR114th50.3%
34.6%19thPassing downs SR71st31.0%
3.1684thLine yards96th3.23
15.1%101stHavoc rate62nd14.6%
4.6651stPoints / opportunity23rd3.24
73%25thRed zone TD rate10th44%

Northwestern's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (44th vs 109th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Rutgers and Northwestern, season to date
Metric	RUTGRUTG	NUNU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	35.3	32.7	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	66.2	61.2	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	46.0%	36.8%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	0.0%	−10.8%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	51.9%	31.6%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	49%	17%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:56	30:46	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.1	Own 27.8	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Rutgers

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −0.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Kaj Sanders · DBKaj SandersDB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Zahmir Dawud · DBZahmir DawudDB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Kevin Levy · DBKevin LevyDB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Questionable
Antwan Raymond · RBAntwan RaymondRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Ja'shon Benjamin · RBJa'shon BenjaminRB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Jourdin Houston · WRJourdin HoustonWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Keshon Griffin · DLKeshon GriffinDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Ty Morris · LBTy MorrisLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Ben Rothhaar · TEBen RothhaarTE · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Sage Clawges · DBSage ClawgesDB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0

Northwestern

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −2.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Ezomo Oratokhai · OLEzomo OratokhaiOL · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Callen Campbell · DLCallen CampbellDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Chris Petrucci · TEChris PetrucciTE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Daniel Anderson · RBDaniel AndersonRB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
David Anchondo · OLDavid AnchondoOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jacob Miller · OLJacob MillerOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jason Reynolds II · LBJason Reynolds IILB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Josh Fussell · DBJosh FussellDB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Luke Dehnicke · TELuke DehnickeTE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−1.1
Out
Max Mohring · LBMax MohringLB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Qayvier Johnson · LBQayvier JohnsonLB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Brendan Flakes · DLBrendan FlakesDL · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.3
Doubtful
Robert Fitzgerald · DBRobert FitzgeraldDB · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.4
Probable
Amare Jordan · LBAmare JordanLB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Available
Migo Jackson · DLMigo JacksonDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

FRI 1:45PSpread −16.5 → −16 · 62% tickets NUSpread −16.5 → −16 · 62% on NURLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread NURLM	−16.5	−16	−16.4
Total	58.5	59.0	60.8
Moneyline NU	−759	−750	−523

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

RUTG +16 · 38% / 16%NU −16 · 62% / 84%

Over · 44% / 3%Under · 56% / 97%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 41-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

Peacock

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny: 62°
mph S: 10
Precip: 1%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestRUTG 7d · NU 7d

Injury report

Rutgers

Northwestern

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew