Rutgers
2-42-4 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · Peacock
Ryan Field · Evanston
WIN PROB
84%
NU
Northwestern
#24 · 5-1#24 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- NU −16
- Open −16.5 · −109
- Total
- 59
- Open 58.5 · o −110
- Model line
- NU −16.4
- Model total 60.8
- Win probability
- 84%
- Projected score
- 22.2 – 38.6
- RUTG – NU
- Projected plays
- 127
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- NU −16
- open −16.5
- Model
- −16.4
- NU
- Total
- 59
- model 60.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Northwestern runvs Rutgers run Dvs RUTG run DBIGGEST EDGE | 9th+0.11 | 135th+0.15 | 36 | NU +13.3 |
| Northwestern passvs Rutgers pass Dvs RUTG pass D | 14th+0.15 | 98th+0.05 | 28 | NU +8.0 |
PaceRUTG 35.3 s · NU 32.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 127 | U 2.0 |
  Rutgers passvs Northwestern pass Dvs NU pass D | 51st+0.04 | 35th−0.07 | 31 | NU +1.4 |
| Rutgers runvs Northwestern run Dvs NU run D | 101st−0.05 | 95th+0.04 | 33 | NU +0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · NU +13.3
Northwestern's run game vs the Rutgers run defense
Northwestern gains +0.18 EPA a play on the run (9th); Rutgers allows +0.22 (135th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNorthwestern
NU OFFWhen Northwestern has the ball
DefenseRutgers
RUTG DEF- +0.239thEPA / play122nd+0.18
- 48.0%14thSuccess rate124th47.0%
- 1.3535thExplosiveness84th1.31
- +0.189thRush EPA / play135th+0.22
- +0.2614thPass EPA / dropback98th+0.17
- 51.6%20thStandard downs SR129th51.8%
- 34.7%18thPassing downs SR109th33.0%
- 3.2563rdLine yards129th3.57
- 14.8%95thHavoc rate100th13.0%
- 5.1713thPoints / opportunity113th4.69
- +0.303rdEarly-down EPA / play126th+0.17
- 47.6%27th3rd-down conversion79th39.3%
- 16.9%87thStuff rate69th16.5%
- 8.8%128thSack rate116th3.8%
- 73%24thRed zone TD rate72nd62%
Northwestern's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (9th vs 135th).
OffenseRutgers
RUTG OFFWhen Rutgers has the ball
DefenseNorthwestern
NU DEF- +0.0666thEPA / play54th+0.03
- 44.2%44thSuccess rate109th45.2%
- 1.3156thExplosiveness10th1.20
- +0.02101stRush EPA / play95th+0.11
- +0.1551stPass EPA / dropback35th+0.05
- 47.5%58thStandard downs SR114th50.3%
- 34.6%19thPassing downs SR71st31.0%
- 3.1684thLine yards96th3.23
- 15.1%101stHavoc rate62nd14.6%
- 4.6651stPoints / opportunity23rd3.24
- +0.1254thEarly-down EPA / play79th+0.05
- 43.1%53rd3rd-down conversion69th38.8%
- 14.1%48thStuff rate62nd17.0%
- 5.0%75thSack rate117th3.6%
- 73%25thRed zone TD rate10th44%
Rutgers's offense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: success rate (44th vs 109th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | RUTGRUTG | NUNU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 35.3 | 32.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.2 | 61.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 46.0% | 36.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | 0.0% | −10.8% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 51.9% | 31.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 49% | 17% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:56 | 30:46 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.1 | Own 27.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%