rumorDuck Sports Central (Scott Reed)@Scott Reed
15hUnconfirmed tip: Moore could be out against Illinois on Saturday.
Dante Moore · QBCHECKING
Big Ten · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 4-2
Oregon Ducks
HC Dan Lanning (5th yr) · OC Drew Mehringer · DC Chris Hampton
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 2-4-5 · SHOTGUN 94%
Power rating11.316th
CFP odds6%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.8of 12
Fan pulse—23 of 30 scored
Big Ten · 4-2 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 4-2
Oregon
Ducks · HC Dan Lanning (5th yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 2-4-5
Power rating11.316th
CFP odds · outlook6%—BUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.8of 12
Fan pulse—23 of 30 scored
Oregon
4-2 · 2-1 Big Ten
POWER RATING11.316th in FBS
CFP ODDS6%no change
PROJ. WINS7.8of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
2 losses now · CFP 6% in sims · CCG 11% · title 5%
FAN PULSE—23 of 30 scored
Latest from the beat
OREGON · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedDaily Emerald football desk@Rowan Shea and Hannah Hiiva
1dUnconfirmed tip on Moore’s status against Illinois on Saturday.
Dante Moore · QBCHECKING
reportedDaily Emerald football desk@Zealan Munsey, Sports Writer
1dUnconfirmed tip on Moore’s status against Illinois on Saturday.
MooreCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   Boise StateBoise State | W34–27 | −25−25 | L | +0.08 | 47% | 38% | 49% | 64 | 15.8 | |
| 2 |   at Oklahoma Stateat Oklahoma State | L31–39 | −24.5−24.5 | L | −0.22 | 30% | 45% | 31% | 60 | 23.4 | |
| 3 |   Portland StatePortland State | W84–0 | −58.5−58.5 | W | +1.30 | 65% | 21% | 100% | 93 | 27.6 | |
| 4 |   at USCat USC | W41–27 | −3.5−3.5 | W | +0.24 | 45% | 43% | 79% | 66 | 28.3 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   UCLAUCLA | L15–17 | −10−10 | L | −0.20 | 28% | 34% | 52% | 61 | 21.5 | |
| 7 |   NebraskaNebraska | W17–14 | −6.5−6.5 | L | +0.02 | 36% | 27% | 56% | 75 | 23.8 | |
| 8 |   at Illinoisat IllinoisNEXT | SAT 3:00 BTNSAT 3:00 | −9.5−9.5 | — | — | — | — | 74% | 132 | — | |
| 9 |   NorthwesternNorthwestern | OCT 31OCT 31 | −5.3 proj−5.3 | 63% | |||||||
| 10 |   at Ohio Stateat Ohio State | NOV 7NOV 7 | +13.4 proj+13.4 | 21% | |||||||
| 11 |   MichiganMichigan | NOV 14NOV 14 | −7.9 proj−7.9 | 68% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Michigan Stateat Michigan State | NOV 20NOV 20 | −11.9 proj−11.9 | 76% | |||||||
| 13 |   WashingtonWashington | NOV 28NOV 28 | −12.3 proj−12.3 | 77% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st100%n 475%n 440%n 14125%n 8
2nd67%n 1852%n 2345%n 5814%n 21
3rd53%n 1950%n 1019%n 3115%n 13
4th50%n 10—n 00%n 3—n 0
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 361 OF 363 PLAYS361 OF 363 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun94% | 94% | 58% | 0.00 | 40% |
| Under center6% | 6% | 18% | −0.40 | 45% |
| No-huddle35% | 35% | 60% | +0.03 | 41% |
| Huddle65% | 65% | 53% | −0.05 | 39% |
StartersSTARTERS
115 of 6 games121 of 6BASE D2-4-56 of 6
115 of 62-4-5base D · 6 of 6
In shotgun on 94 % of tagged snaps, passing 58 % of the time (+0.00 EPA a play; −0.40 under center). No-huddle on 35 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 2-4-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:00 BTN · MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)SAT 3:00 BTN
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Dante MooreQB · JR
QB · top injuryNEXT UPD. RaiolaΔ −0.03 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−0.7IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −0.7 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.5 to +0.4 · 30 games | 0.0 | −0.5 to +0.4 | 30 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.4 to +0.6 · 25 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.6 | 25 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 3 games | −1.2 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 3 games | +0.3 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −2.2 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTMark Duddy−1.3 / g · 4 games · noise−1.3 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMatthew Richards+1.4 / g · 3 games · noise+1.4 / g · 3 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Oregon than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Oregon than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #5 · JRDante Moore+0.25EPA/dropback · 46thCPOE+5.8aDOT8.4Sack %5.7%RB · #0 · SOJordon Davison41.7%rush SR · 155thYards per carry4.6Explosive rate8.3%Rush EPA−0.01WR · #1 · SODakorien Moore1.61YPTPA · 136thTarget share21.9%EPA / target+0.13aDOT12.3DL · #52 · SRA'Mauri Washington5havoc plays · 122ndTFL1Sacks0Forced fumbles0
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | OregonORE | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.01 | 92nd | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 41.0% | 79th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.27 | 91st | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.02 | 103rd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.13 | 58th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.7% | 96th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.95 | 110th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.5% | 37th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33% | 117th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.78 | 42nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 59% | 89th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 24.8 | 16th | 28.0 |