Georgia Tech
2-42-4 · 1-2 ACC · ATS 1-5
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN2
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh
WIN PROB
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Pittsburgh
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Pittsburgh passvs Georgia Tech pass Dvs GT pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 64th0.00 | 121st+0.12 | 35 | PITT +6.3 |
  Georgia Tech runvs Pittsburgh run Dvs PITT run D | 64th+0.01 | 6th−0.12 | 30 | PITT +4.9 |
| Pittsburgh runvs Georgia Tech run Dvs GT run D | 67th+0.01 | 121st+0.08 | 33 | PITT +4.3 |
| Georgia Tech passvs Pittsburgh pass Dvs PITT pass D | 65th0.00 | 68th0.00 | 38 | GT +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · PITT +6.3
Pittsburgh's passing game vs the Georgia Tech pass defense
Pittsburgh gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (64th); Georgia Tech allows +0.23 (121st). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffensePittsburgh
PITT OFFWhen Pittsburgh has the ball
DefenseGeorgia Tech
GT DEF- +0.0952ndEPA / play127th+0.20
- 42.2%63rdSuccess rate95th44.2%
- 1.3061stExplosiveness128th1.39
- +0.0767thRush EPA / play121st+0.15
- +0.1264thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.23
- 47.6%58thStandard downs SR44th45.8%
- 31.2%62ndPassing downs SR137th37.4%
- 3.3349thLine yards113th3.38
- 12.5%49thHavoc rate115th12.1%
- 4.0386thPoints / opportunity73rd4.09
- +0.0871stEarly-down EPA / play95th+0.08
- 44.6%37th3rd-down conversion120th45.8%
- 13.5%39thStuff rate111th13.6%
- 3.6%40thSack rate74th5.3%
- 64%70thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Pittsburgh's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (37th vs 120th).
OffenseGeorgia Tech
GT OFFWhen Georgia Tech has the ball
DefensePittsburgh
PITT DEF- +0.0665thEPA / play35th−0.01
- 43.8%47thSuccess rate16th37.7%
- 1.3067thExplosiveness129th1.39
- +0.0864thRush EPA / play6th−0.05
- +0.1265thPass EPA / dropback68th+0.11
- 48.5%47thStandard downs SR24th43.6%
- 31.3%59thPassing downs SR17th28.5%
- 3.1389thLine yards3rd2.36
- 15.8%114thHavoc rate43rd15.5%
- 4.0384thPoints / opportunity22nd3.23
- +0.1159thEarly-down EPA / play25th−0.09
- 38.5%86th3rd-down conversion43rd35.4%
- 18.9%109thStuff rate9th24.4%
- 6.0%95thSack rate78th5.2%
- 52%114thRed zone TD rate67th61%
Pittsburgh's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (109th vs 9th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | GTGT | PITTPITT | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.9 | 26.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 61.5 | 70.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.7% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +6.2% | −3.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.6% | 45.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 24% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:12 | 31:52 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.6 | Own 29.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%