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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

ACC · 5-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4

Pittsburgh Panthers

HC Pat Narduzzi (12th yr) · OC Kade Bell · DC Cory Sanders

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (7 OF 7) · BASE D 4-3-4 · SHOTGUN 99%

Power rating6.334th
CFP odds1%—
PLAYOFFBUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.7of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

ACC · 5-2 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4

Pittsburgh

Panthers · HC Pat Narduzzi (12th yr) · starts in 11 (7 of 7) · base D 4-3-4

Power rating6.334th
CFP odds · outlook1%—BUBBLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins7.7of 12
Fan pulse—0 of 30 scored

Pittsburgh

5-2 · 2-2 ACC

POWER RATING6.334th in FBS
CFP ODDS1%no change
PROJ. WINS7.7of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKBUBBLE→LONG SHOT

2 losses now · CFP 1% in sims · CCG 2% · title 1%

FAN PULSE—0 of 30 scored

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PITTSBURGH · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

Pittsburgh schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1Miami (OH)Miami (OH)W59–14−16.5−16.5W+0.5849%29%99%7627.5
2UCFUCFW12–7−7.5−7.5L+0.2738%29%61%6829.1
3SyracuseSyracuseW27–13−11−11W+0.1647%37%82%5926.8
4BucknellBucknellW59–0−54.5−54.5W+1.1860%19%100%8323.2
5at Virginia Techat Virginia TechW35–33+1.5+1.5W−0.0530%40%54%6029.9
6North CarolinaNorth CarolinaL17–21−3.5−3.5L−0.0641%39%40%8525.5
7at Boston Collegeat Boston CollegeL21–27−6.5−6.5L−0.0948%41%34%6426.4
8at Miamiat MiamiNEXTSAT 12:00 ESPNSAT 12:00+20+20————16%139—
9Georgia TechGeorgia TechOCT 31OCT 31−13.3 proj−13.379%
10BYE
11Florida StateFlorida StateNOV 13NOV 13−5.2 proj−5.262%
12at Louisvilleat LouisvilleNOV 21NOV 21+5.2 proj+5.238%
13at Californiaat CaliforniaNOV 28NOV 28−11 proj−1175%

Success rate by down & distance

1st75%n 4100%n 147%n 17610%n 10
2nd57%n 2169%n 2933%n 7319%n 21
3rd70%n 2059%n 1739%n 286%n 18
4th60%n 100%n 10%n 10%n 1

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 427 OF 431 PLAYS427 OF 431 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun99%99%51%+0.1043%
Under center1%1%0%+0.9567%
No-huddle30%30%51%+0.2148%
Huddle70%70%51%+0.0642%
StartersSTARTERS
117 of 7 gamesBASE D4-3-47 of 7
117 of 74-3-4base D · 7 of 7

In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.10 EPA a play; +0.95 under center). No-huddle on 30 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 7 of 7 games. Base defense 4-3-4 (7 of 7).

Next game

SAT 12:00 ESPN · HARD ROCK STADIUMSAT 12:00 ESPN

at MiamiLINE+20MODEL+16.2WP16%

TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT

O
Mason HeintschelQB · SO
QB · top injury
NEXT UPH. GerinerΔ −0.21 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−7.5IMPACT PTS

% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported

LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −7.5 PTS

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
ACC crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 49 games0.0−0.4 to +0.449NOISE
Big 12 crews— · 6 games−1.3—6NOISE
C-USA crews— · 1 game−0.6—1NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 1 game+6.6—1NOISE
SEC crews— · 1 game−1.1—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTRiley Johnson−0.6 / g · 7 games · noise−0.6 / g · 7 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTMike Roche+2.4 / g · 3 games · noise+2.4 / g · 3 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on Pittsburgh than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Pittsburgh than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

Pittsburgh offense statistics
MetricStat
PittsburghPITT
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.0952nd+0.06
Success rate42.3%62nd42.3%
Explosiveness1.3061st1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.0864th+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.1262nd+0.11
Passing downs SR31.3%62nd31.1%
Line yards3.3350th3.21
Sack rate allowed3.6%41st5.3%
3rd-down conversion45%38th41%
Points / opportunity4.0386th4.27
Red zone TD rate64%70th63%
Seconds / play26.541st28.0