- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Louisiana Tech runvs South Alabama run Dvs USA run DBIGGEST EDGE | 41st+0.05 | 137th+0.17 | 34 | LT +10.3 |
| Louisiana Tech passvs South Alabama pass Dvs USA pass D | 75th−0.02 | 117th+0.11 | 35 | LT +4.5 |
  South Alabama passvs Louisiana Tech pass Dvs LT pass D | 33rd+0.08 | 43rd−0.05 | 25 | USA +0.8 |
| South Alabama runvs Louisiana Tech run Dvs LT run D | 47th+0.04 | 53rd−0.03 | 43 | USA +0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · LT +10.3
Louisiana Tech's run game vs the South Alabama run defense
Louisiana Tech gains +0.12 EPA a play on the run (41st); South Alabama allows +0.24 (137th). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When South Alabama has the ball
- +0.1145thEPA / play33rd−0.01
- 40.5%87thSuccess rate25th38.6%
- 1.416thExplosiveness124th1.38
- +0.1147thRush EPA / play53rd+0.04
- +0.1933rdPass EPA / dropback43rd+0.06
- 45.4%96thStandard downs SR27th44.1%
- 31.7%52ndPassing downs SR54th30.2%
- 3.2953rdLine yards15th2.71
- 10.9%26thHavoc rate9th18.8%
- 5.0221stPoints / opportunity87th4.19
- +0.1641stEarly-down EPA / play33rd−0.05
- 39.6%73rd3rd-down conversion71st38.8%
- 12.8%30thStuff rate19th21.9%
- 2.3%14thSack rate21st7.6%
- 70%38thRed zone TD rate24th47%
Louisiana Tech's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (6th vs 124th).
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
- +0.0666thEPA / play130th+0.21
- 40.3%90thSuccess rate133rd48.5%
- 1.3722ndExplosiveness131st1.40
- +0.1241stRush EPA / play137th+0.24
- +0.0975thPass EPA / dropback117th+0.22
- 44.7%111thStandard downs SR127th51.7%
- 32.0%44thPassing downs SR130th35.5%
- 2.82125thLine yards107th3.34
- 15.9%117thHavoc rate73rd14.2%
- 3.8895thPoints / opportunity125th4.93
- +0.1157thEarly-down EPA / play133rd+0.24
- 39.1%80th3rd-down conversion116th44.3%
- 19.0%110thStuff rate74th16.1%
- 5.5%88thSack rate98th4.6%
- 62%78thRed zone TD rate129th78%
Louisiana Tech's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (22nd vs 131st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | LTLT | USAUSA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.5 | 28.2 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.2 | 71.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.9% | 39.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +7.6% | −11.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 54.9% | 38.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 28% | 45% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:50 | 34:09 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.5 | Own 31.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%