Auburn
4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 2-4
12:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · SEC Network
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Oxford
WIN PROB
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Ole Miss
#7 · 5-1#7 · 5-1 · 3-1 SEC · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- MISS −10.5
- Open −10.5
- Total
- 53.5
- Open 53.5
- Model line
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- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MISS −10.5
- open −10.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 53.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Ole Miss passvs Auburn pass Dvs AUB pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 7th+0.21 | 27th−0.09 | 39 | MISS +7.1 |
| Ole Miss runvs Auburn run Dvs AUB run D | 8th+0.11 | 67th0.00 | 29 | MISS +4.6 |
  Auburn passvs Ole Miss pass Dvs MISS pass D | 98th−0.06 | 78th+0.02 | 36 | MISS +2.3 |
| Auburn runvs Ole Miss run Dvs MISS run D | 28th+0.07 | 59th−0.02 | 32 | AUB +2.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MISS +7.1
Ole Miss's passing game vs the Auburn pass defense
Ole Miss gains +0.33 EPA a play on the pass (7th); Auburn allows +0.03 (27th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseOle Miss
MISS OFFWhen Ole Miss has the ball
DefenseAuburn
AUB DEF- +0.265thEPA / play32nd−0.01
- 50.3%3rdSuccess rate49th41.0%
- 1.2790thExplosiveness44th1.27
- +0.188thRush EPA / play67th+0.07
- +0.337thPass EPA / dropback27th+0.03
- 53.9%5thStandard downs SR40th45.7%
- 35.5%9thPassing downs SR70th30.9%
- 3.707thLine yards53rd2.96
- 9.4%12thHavoc rate55th15.0%
- 5.359thPoints / opportunity58th3.88
- +0.2221stEarly-down EPA / play32nd−0.05
- 50.0%17th3rd-down conversion41st35.2%
- 12.4%25thStuff rate71st16.3%
- 1.5%7thSack rate47th6.3%
- 91%1stRed zone TD rate77th63%
Ole Miss's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (1st vs 77th).
OffenseAuburn
AUB OFFWhen Auburn has the ball
DefenseOle Miss
MISS DEF- +0.0855thEPA / play70th+0.05
- 42.5%59thSuccess rate73rd42.4%
- 1.3059thExplosiveness43rd1.27
- +0.1428thRush EPA / play59th+0.05
- +0.0598thPass EPA / dropback78th+0.13
- 47.0%67thStandard downs SR91st49.1%
- 32.4%39thPassing downs SR37th29.5%
- 3.4829thLine yards59th3.01
- 15.0%101stHavoc rate77th14.1%
- 4.0385thPoints / opportunity48th3.71
- −0.01110thEarly-down EPA / play84th+0.07
- 45.4%33rd3rd-down conversion113th43.8%
- 12.6%28thStuff rate14th23.2%
- 11.1%136thSack rate86th5.0%
- 71%35thRed zone TD rate24th47%
Ole Miss's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (33rd vs 113th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | AUBAUB | MISSMISS | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 22.8 | 23.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.5 | 67.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.8% | 58.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.1% | +11.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 48.9% | 57.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 23% | 15% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:47 | 26:57 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.7 | Own 27.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%