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SAT 3:45 · CINCINNATI
Utah
#10 · 6-0#10 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 5-1
3:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati
WIN PROB
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Cincinnati
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
Spread
UTAH −9.5
Open −9.5
Total
56.5
Open 56.5
Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
UTAH −9.5
open −9.5
Model
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Total
56.5
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Utah passvs Cincinnati pass Dvs CIN pass DBIGGEST EDGE
24th+0.12121st+0.1235UTAH +11.9
Utah runvs Cincinnati run Dvs CIN run D
12th+0.1176th+0.0134UTAH +5.8
Cincinnati runvs Utah run Dvs UTAH run D
22nd+0.0843rd−0.0537CIN +2.0
Cincinnati passvs Utah pass Dvs UTAH pass D
43rd+0.0622nd−0.1031UTAH +1.7

BIGGEST EDGE · UTAH +11.9

Utah's passing game vs the Cincinnati pass defense

Utah gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (24th); Cincinnati allows +0.23 (121st). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseCincinnati
CIN OFF

When Cincinnati has the ball

DefenseUtah
UTAH DEF
  • +0.1435thEPA / play34th−0.01
  • 43.8%50thSuccess rate22nd38.4%
  • 1.3627thExplosiveness60th1.29
  • +0.1522ndRush EPA / play43rd+0.02
  • +0.1743rdPass EPA / dropback22nd+0.02
  • 48.2%51stStandard downs SR13th43.0%
  • 33.1%30thPassing downs SR60th30.4%
  • 3.5520thLine yards26th2.78
  • 9.2%10thHavoc rate16th17.9%
  • 4.8636thPoints / opportunity28th3.40
  • 86%6thRed zone TD rate29th50%

Cincinnati's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (51st vs 13th).

OffenseUtah
UTAH OFF

When Utah has the ball

DefenseCincinnati
CIN DEF
  • +0.2215thEPA / play109th+0.14
  • 48.7%11thSuccess rate103rd45.0%
  • 1.3532ndExplosiveness52nd1.28
  • +0.1812thRush EPA / play76th+0.08
  • +0.2324thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.23
  • 50.6%26thStandard downs SR93rd49.1%
  • 36.6%5thPassing downs SR119th33.9%
  • 3.5025thLine yards87th3.20
  • 13.8%76thHavoc rate103rd12.9%
  • 5.418thPoints / opportunity101st4.38
  • 75%15thRed zone TD rate54th56%

Utah's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (5th vs 119th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Utah and Cincinnati, season to date
MetricUTAHUTAHCINCINFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral27.729.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game70.064.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral57.1%44.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+4.5%−4.7%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral55.6%43.2%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations30%32%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession33:3829:0130:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 31.8Own 28.9Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Utah

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT

Cincinnati

BIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG 12 REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report3 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE

Line movement

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread UTAH
−9.5−9.5—
Total
56.556.5—
Moneyline UTAH
−340−340—

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Precip
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Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestUTAH 14d · CIN 14dBOTH OFF BYE