Utah
#10 · 6-0#10 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 5-1
3:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati
WIN PROB
—
Cincinnati
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- UTAH −9.5
- Open −9.5
- Total
- 56.5
- Open 56.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UTAH −9.5
- open −9.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 56.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Utah passvs Cincinnati pass Dvs CIN pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 24th+0.12 | 120th+0.12 | 35 | UTAH +11.9 |
| Utah runvs Cincinnati run Dvs CIN run D | 12th+0.11 | 76th+0.01 | 34 | UTAH +5.8 |
  Cincinnati runvs Utah run Dvs UTAH run D | 22nd+0.08 | 44th−0.05 | 37 | CIN +2.0 |
| Cincinnati passvs Utah pass Dvs UTAH pass D | 42nd+0.05 | 24th−0.09 | 31 | UTAH +1.8 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UTAH +11.9
Utah's passing game vs the Cincinnati pass defense
Utah gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (24th); Cincinnati allows +0.23 (120th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseCincinnati
CIN OFFWhen Cincinnati has the ball
DefenseUtah
UTAH DEF- +0.1436thEPA / play34th−0.01
- 43.7%49thSuccess rate22nd38.3%
- 1.3628thExplosiveness59th1.29
- +0.1522ndRush EPA / play44th+0.02
- +0.1742ndPass EPA / dropback24th+0.02
- 48.2%51stStandard downs SR13th43.0%
- 33.0%30thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 3.5520thLine yards26th2.78
- 9.2%10thHavoc rate16th17.9%
- 4.8634thPoints / opportunity28th3.40
- +0.1928thEarly-down EPA / play20th−0.11
- 48.6%24th3rd-down conversion13th30.2%
- 14.9%60thStuff rate17th22.2%
- 5.7%91stSack rate128th2.8%
- 86%6thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Utah's defense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (60th vs 17th).
OffenseUtah
UTAH OFFWhen Utah has the ball
DefenseCincinnati
CIN DEF- +0.2215thEPA / play109th+0.14
- 48.7%10thSuccess rate103rd45.0%
- 1.3533rdExplosiveness50th1.28
- +0.1812thRush EPA / play76th+0.08
- +0.2324thPass EPA / dropback120th+0.23
- 50.6%24thStandard downs SR92nd49.1%
- 36.6%5thPassing downs SR119th33.8%
- 3.5025thLine yards85th3.20
- 13.8%77thHavoc rate103rd12.9%
- 5.418thPoints / opportunity101st4.38
- +0.2416thEarly-down EPA / play113th+0.12
- 53.2%9th3rd-down conversion127th47.9%
- 18.5%103rdStuff rate77th16.0%
- 4.0%42ndSack rate103rd4.4%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate54th56%
Utah's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (9th vs 127th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UTAHUTAH | CINCIN | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.7 | 29.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.0 | 64.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 57.1% | 44.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +4.5% | −4.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 55.6% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 32% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:38 | 29:01 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.8 | Own 28.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%