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SAT 12:00 · ESPN2 · SYRACUSE
SMU
#23 · 5-1#23 · 5-1 · 3-1 ACC · ATS 1-3-2
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN2
JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse
WIN PROB
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Syracuse
2-42-4 · 0-4 ACC · ATS 3-3
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Syracuse passvs SMU pass Dvs SMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE
90th−0.0546th−0.0536SMU +5.0
SMU passvs Syracuse pass Dvs SYR pass D
16th+0.1427th−0.0935SMU +2.9
SMU runvs Syracuse run Dvs SYR run D
97th−0.04101st+0.0533SMU +0.5
Syracuse runvs SMU run Dvs SMU run D
67th0.0068th0.0032SYR +0.2

BIGGEST EDGE · SMU +5.0

The SMU pass defense vs Syracuse's passing game

Syracuse gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (90th); SMU allows +0.07 (46th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSyracuse
SYR OFF

When Syracuse has the ball

DefenseSMU
SMU DEF
  • +0.0381stEPA / play48th+0.02
  • 42.2%64thSuccess rate36th40.1%
  • 1.3069thExplosiveness69th1.30
  • +0.0767thRush EPA / play68th+0.07
  • +0.0690thPass EPA / dropback46th+0.07
  • 46.8%71stStandard downs SR65th46.9%
  • 31.6%55thPassing downs SR10th28.0%
  • 2.87122ndLine yards48th2.90
  • 14.8%93rdHavoc rate34th15.9%
  • 3.67108thPoints / opportunity65th4.00
  • 54%109thRed zone TD rate116th73%

SMU's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (122nd vs 48th).

OffenseSMU
SMU OFF

When SMU has the ball

DefenseSyracuse
SYR DEF
  • +0.1337thEPA / play52nd+0.03
  • 46.6%20thSuccess rate71st42.3%
  • 1.3154thExplosiveness71st1.30
  • +0.0397thRush EPA / play101st+0.12
  • +0.2616thPass EPA / dropback27th+0.03
  • 50.4%27thStandard downs SR83rd48.4%
  • 34.5%20thPassing downs SR52nd30.2%
  • 2.88121stLine yards62nd3.05
  • 10.6%23rdHavoc rate10th18.5%
  • 3.76102ndPoints / opportunity94th4.31
  • 67%55thRed zone TD rate112th70%

SMU's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (121st vs 62nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, SMU and Syracuse, season to date
MetricSMUSMUSYRSYRFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral25.626.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game67.580.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral52.6%49.5%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+5.0%−0.3%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral47.5%45.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations36%33%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession29:5133:4830:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 33.9Own 31.3Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

SMU

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report10 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 QUESTIONABLE

Syracuse

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report6 OUT · 3 PROBABLE

Broadcast

ESPN2
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

INDOORS

No weather
Dome
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestSMU 14d · SYR 14dBOTH OFF BYE