SMU
#23 · 5-1#23 · 5-1 · 3-1 ACC · ATS 1-3-2
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN2
JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse
WIN PROB
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Syracuse
2-42-4 · 0-4 ACC · ATS 3-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Syracuse passvs SMU pass Dvs SMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 88th−0.05 | 46th−0.04 | 36 | SMU +4.6 |
  SMU passvs Syracuse pass Dvs SYR pass D | 15th+0.14 | 29th−0.08 | 35 | SMU +3.2 |
| Syracuse runvs SMU run Dvs SMU run D | 61st+0.01 | 68th0.00 | 32 | SYR +0.5 |
| SMU runvs Syracuse run Dvs SYR run D | 96th−0.04 | 101st+0.05 | 33 | SMU +0.5 |
BIGGEST EDGE · SMU +4.6
The SMU pass defense vs Syracuse's passing game
Syracuse gains +0.07 EPA a play on the pass (88th); SMU allows +0.07 (46th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSyracuse
SYR OFFWhen Syracuse has the ball
DefenseSMU
SMU DEF- +0.0477thEPA / play49th+0.03
- 42.5%58thSuccess rate39th40.2%
- 1.3068thExplosiveness67th1.30
- +0.0861stRush EPA / play68th+0.07
- +0.0788thPass EPA / dropback46th+0.07
- 46.9%71stStandard downs SR66th47.1%
- 31.8%48thPassing downs SR12th27.9%
- 2.87123rdLine yards48th2.90
- 14.8%93rdHavoc rate35th15.9%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- +0.0486thEarly-down EPA / play76th+0.05
- 42.9%54th3rd-down conversion11th29.5%
- 17.2%92ndStuff rate51st18.0%
- 6.4%97thSack rate7th8.9%
- 54%109thRed zone TD rate116th73%
SMU's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (97th vs 7th).
OffenseSMU
SMU OFFWhen SMU has the ball
DefenseSyracuse
SYR DEF- +0.1337thEPA / play54th+0.03
- 46.7%21stSuccess rate75th42.6%
- 1.3154thExplosiveness68th1.30
- +0.0396thRush EPA / play101st+0.12
- +0.2615thPass EPA / dropback29th+0.03
- 50.4%26thStandard downs SR84th48.5%
- 34.5%20thPassing downs SR59th30.4%
- 2.88122ndLine yards63rd3.05
- 10.6%23rdHavoc rate10th18.5%
- 3.76102ndPoints / opportunity93rd4.31
- +0.1156thEarly-down EPA / play73rd+0.04
- 48.6%23rd3rd-down conversion49th35.9%
- 18.6%104thStuff rate11th23.8%
- 3.6%39thSack rate53rd6.1%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate112th70%
SMU's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (104th vs 11th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SMUSMU | SYRSYR | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.6 | 26.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.5 | 80.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.6% | 49.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +5.0% | −0.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 47.5% | 45.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 36% | 33% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:51 | 33:48 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.9 | Own 31.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%