ACC · #23 AP · 5-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-4
SMU Mustangs
HC Rhett Lashlee (5th yr) · OC — · DC —
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 94%
ACC · #23 AP · 5-1 · 3-1 CONF · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-4
SMU
Mustangs · HC Rhett Lashlee (5th yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 4-2-5
SMU
#23 · 5-1 · 3-1 ACC
1 loss now · CFP 6% in sims · CCG 26% · title 7%
Latest from the beat
SMU · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Florida Stateat Florida State | W27–24 | −3−3 | P | +0.31 | 61% | 37% | 57% | 67 | 24.4 | |
| 2 |   UC DavisUC Davis | W56–10 | −32.5−32.5 | W | +1.51 | 75% | 22% | 100% | 55 | 26.0 | |
| 3 |   at Louisvilleat Louisville | L31–41 | +3+3 | L | −0.30 | 43% | 52% | 26% | 80 | 26.5 | |
| 4 |   Missouri StateMissouri State | W34–24 | −30.5−30.5 | L | +0.24 | 54% | 31% | 72% | 76 | 26.7 | |
| 5 |   Boston CollegeBoston College | W25–16 | −21.5−21.5 | L | +0.10 | 37% | 40% | 73% | 60 | 26.3 | |
| 6 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 7 |   VirginiaVirginia | W23–13 | −10−10 | P | +0.22 | 46% | 41% | 81% | 67 | 25.8 | |
| 8 |   CaliforniaCaliforniaNEXT | SAT 12:00 CWSAT 12:00 | −19−19 | — | — | — | — | 84% | 138 | — | |
| 9 |   at Syracuseat Syracuse | OCT 31OCT 31 | −7.2 proj−7.2 | 67% | |||||||
| 10 |   Virginia TechVirginia Tech | NOV 6NOV 6 | −7.2 proj−7.2 | 67% | |||||||
| 11 |   Wake ForestWake Forest | NOV 14NOV 14 | +4.8 proj+4.8 | 39% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Notre Dameat Notre Dame | NOV 21NOV 21 | +19.4 proj+19.4 | 12% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Stanfordat Stanford | NOV 28NOV 28 | −15.6 proj−15.6 | 83% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 309 OF 378 PLAYS309 OF 378 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun94% | 94% | 52% | +0.21 | 49% |
| Under center6% | 6% | 42% | −0.18 | 26% |
| No-huddle57% | 57% | 50% | +0.34 | 54% |
| Huddle43% | 43% | 53% | −0.01 | 40% |
In shotgun on 94 % of tagged snaps, passing 52 % of the time (+0.21 EPA a play; −0.18 under center). No-huddle on 57 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 12:00 CW · GERALD J. FORD STADIUMSAT 12:00 CW
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC crews−0.6 to +0.3 · 26 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.3 | 26 | NOISE |
| American crews−0.4 to +0.6 · 22 games | +0.1 | −0.4 to +0.6 | 22 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 6 games | −0.7 | — | 6 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 2 games | −1.1 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −1.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 1 game | +6.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 1 game | +3.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | −0.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on SMU than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on SMU than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | SMUSMU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.13 | 37th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.6% | 20th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.31 | 54th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.03 | 97th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.26 | 16th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 34.5% | 20th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.88 | 121st | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.6% | 39th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 49% | 23rd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.76 | 102nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 67% | 55th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 25.9 | 32nd | 28.0 |