California vs SMU

California

3-43-4 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · CW

Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park

WIN PROB

84%

SMU

#23 · 5-1#23 · 5-1 · 3-1 ACC · ATS 1-3-2

Spread: SMU −19; Open −17.5 · −110
Total: 55; Open 52.5 · o −110
Model line: SMU −16.2+2.8; Model total 53.8
Win probability: 84%
Projected score: 18.8 – 35.0; CAL – SMU
Projected plays: 138; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: SMU −19; open −17.5
Model: −16.2+2.8; SMU
Total: 55; model 53.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
SMU passvs California pass Dvs CAL pass DBIGGEST EDGE	16th+0.14	57th−0.02	36	SMU +6.3
California passvs SMU pass Dvs SMU pass D	86th−0.04	46th−0.05	44	SMU +5.6
California runvs SMU run Dvs SMU run D	123rd−0.09	68th0.00	26	SMU +3.5
SMU runvs California run Dvs CAL run D	97th−0.04	131st+0.11	33	SMU +3.1
PaceCAL 28.8 s · SMU 25.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays138 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	138	O 2.7

BIGGEST EDGE · SMU +6.3

SMU's passing game vs the California pass defense

SMU gains +0.26 EPA a play on the pass (16th); California allows +0.09 (57th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSMU

SMU OFF

When SMU has the ball

DefenseCalifornia

CAL DEF

+0.1337thEPA / play93rd+0.12
46.6%20thSuccess rate54th41.3%
1.3154thExplosiveness136th1.42
+0.0397thRush EPA / play131st+0.18
+0.2616thPass EPA / dropback57th+0.09
50.4%27thStandard downs SR76th48.0%
34.5%20thPassing downs SR19th28.7%
2.88121stLine yards108th3.35
10.6%23rdHavoc rate111th12.2%
3.76102ndPoints / opportunity85th4.19
67%55thRed zone TD rate43rd52%

SMU's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (23rd vs 111th).

OffenseCalifornia

CAL OFF

When California has the ball

DefenseSMU

SMU DEF

0.0097thEPA / play48th+0.02
38.8%112thSuccess rate36th40.1%
1.2790thExplosiveness69th1.30
−0.02123rdRush EPA / play68th+0.07
+0.0786thPass EPA / dropback46th+0.07
44.2%117thStandard downs SR65th46.9%
29.2%105thPassing downs SR10th28.0%
2.48136thLine yards48th2.90
15.9%116thHavoc rate34th15.9%
3.8498thPoints / opportunity65th4.00
63%73rdRed zone TD rate116th73%

SMU's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (105th vs 10th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, California and SMU, season to date
Metric	CALCAL	SMUSMU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	28.8	25.6	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	70.9	67.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	58.4%	52.6%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+7.2%	+5.0%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	52.7%	47.5%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	30%	36%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:18	29:51	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.3	Own 33.9	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

California

ACC REPORT · FRI 9:00 PMNET −5.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Adam Mohammed · RBAdam MohammedRB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−3.0
Out
Carter Vargas · RBCarter VargasRB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Dorian Thomas · TEDorian ThomasTE · JRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Kahlee Tafai · OLKahlee TafaiOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Nate Burrell · DLNate BurrellDL · SRReport trail: Available, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Bastian Swinney · OLBastian SwinneyOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.4
Doubtful
Cooper Perry · WRCooper PerryWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.5
Doubtful
Jimothy Lewis Jr. · OLJimothy Lewis Jr.OL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.1
Doubtful
Jordan King · WRJordan KingWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.2
Doubtful
Mark Hamper · WRMark HamperWR · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.4
Probable
Ian Strong · WRIan StrongWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.3
Probable
Jericho Johnson · DLJericho JohnsonDL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Sioape Vatikani · OLSioape VatikaniOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1

SMU

ACC REPORT · FRI 9:00 PMNET −1.9% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Abel Hoopii · OLAbel HoopiiOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ahmaad Moses · SAhmaad MosesSReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
——
Out
Carterrious Brown · WRCarterrious BrownWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Dramekco Green · RBDramekco GreenRB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.8
Out
I'Zayah Young · LBI'Zayah YoungLB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ira Singleton · EDGEIra SingletonEDGE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jaelyn Davis-Robinson · CBJaelyn Davis-RobinsonCB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Link Rhodes · RBLink RhodesRB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Trey Wilson · EDGETrey WilsonEDGE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Tyren Polley · STyren PolleyS · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
REPORTEDOUT
· perperLia Assimakopoulos· 4d
Doubtful
Tyron Winslow · DLTyron WinslowDL · FRReport trail: Available, Available, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%0.0
Questionable
Nick Reed · KNick ReedK · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Available
Kenneth Goodwin III · LBKenneth Goodwin IIILB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

MON 8:00PTotal 54.5 → 53.5 · 71% tickets overTotal 54.5 → 53.5 · 71% on overRLM
TUE 11:45ATotal 53.5 → 54.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
TUE 12:09PTotal 53.5 → 54.5
FRI 10:00ATotal 54.5 → 55.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread SMU	−17.5	−19	−16.2
TotalRLMSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	52.5	55.0	53.8
Moneyline SMU	−873	−1132	−512

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

CAL +19 · 34% / 47%SMU −19 · 66% / 53%

Over · 71% / 32%Under · 29% / 68%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 39-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

CrewTBA

Also onESPN Unlimited

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny: 75°
mph S: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestCAL 7d · SMU 7d

Injury report

California

SMU

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew