ACC · 3-4 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 2-5
California Golden Bears
HC Tosh Lupoi (1st yr) · OC Jordan Somerville · DC Michael Hutchings
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 7) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 96%
ACC · 3-4 · 2-2 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 2-5
California
Golden Bears · HC Tosh Lupoi (1st yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 7) · base D 3-3-5
California
3-4 · 2-2 ACC
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
Latest from the beat
CALIFORNIA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   UCLAUCLA | L24–45 | +2.5+2.5 | L | −0.51 | 33% | 58% | 12% | 86 | 26.0 | |
| 2 |   at Syracuseat Syracuse | W21–18 | +4+4 | W | +0.01 | 36% | 34% | 53% | 58 | 25.8 | |
| 3 |  WagnerWagner | W49–7 | −58−58 | L | +0.82 | 60% | 26% | 100% | 71 | 28.3 | |
| 4 |   ClemsonClemson | L10–24 | +2.5+2.5 | L | −0.23 | 36% | 35% | 21% | 56 | 29.0 | |
| 5 |   at UNLVat UNLV | L31–39 | +2+2 | L | −0.14 | 34% | 29% | 46% | 83 | 22.0 | |
| 6 |   Virginia TechVirginia Tech | W25–20 | +11.5+11.5 | W | +0.05 | 45% | 44% | 64% | 71 | 26.2 | |
| 7 |   Wake ForestWake Forest | L7–41 | +10+10 | L | −1.28 | 30% | 63% | 2% | 71 | 26.3 | |
| 8 |   at SMUat SMUNEXT | SAT 12:00 CWSAT 12:00 | +19+19 | — | — | — | — | 16% | 138 | — | |
| 9 |   at NC Stateat NC State | OCT 31OCT 31 | +9.3 proj+9.3 | 29% | |||||||
| 10 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 11 |   at Virginiaat Virginia | NOV 14NOV 14 | +9.9 proj+9.9 | 27% | |||||||
| 12 |   StanfordStanford | NOV 21NOV 21 | −7.8 proj−7.8 | 68% | |||||||
| 13 |   PittsburghPittsburgh | NOV 28NOV 28 | +11 proj+11 | 25% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 434 OF 441 PLAYS434 OF 441 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun96% | 96% | 65% | −0.05 | 37% |
| Under center4% | 4% | 6% | −0.15 | 41% |
| No-huddle27% | 27% | 68% | −0.06 | 40% |
| Huddle73% | 73% | 61% | −0.05 | 37% |
In shotgun on 96 % of tagged snaps, passing 65 % of the time (−0.05 EPA a play; −0.15 under center). No-huddle on 27 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 7 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (3 of 7).
Next game
SAT 12:00 CW · GERALD J. FORD STADIUMSAT 12:00 CW
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC crews−0.5 to +0.4 · 29 games | −0.1 | −0.5 to +0.4 | 29 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 21 games | −0.1 | −0.6 to +0.4 | 21 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 2 games | +4.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | −0.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −3.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −0.3 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 1 game | +0.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on California than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on California than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | CaliforniaCAL | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | 0.00 | 97th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.8% | 112th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.27 | 90th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | −0.02 | 123rd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.07 | 86th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.2% | 105th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.48 | 136th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 3.3% | 33rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39% | 83rd | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.84 | 98th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 63% | 73rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 25.5 | 23rd | 28.0 |