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SAT 12:00 · ACC NETWORK · RALEIGH
California
3-43-4 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh
WIN PROB
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NC State
3-43-4 · 1-3 ACC · ATS 2-5
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
NC State passvs California pass Dvs CAL pass DBIGGEST EDGE
27th+0.1157th−0.0235NCSU +4.5
NC State runvs California run Dvs CAL run D
80th−0.01131st+0.1133NCSU +4.5
California passvs NC State pass Dvs NCSU pass D
86th−0.04116th+0.1043CAL +3.6
California runvs NC State run Dvs NCSU run D
123rd−0.09121st+0.0825NCSU +0.5

BIGGEST EDGE · NCSU +4.5

NC State's passing game vs the California pass defense

NC State gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (27th); California allows +0.09 (57th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNC State
NCSU OFF

When NC State has the ball

DefenseCalifornia
CAL DEF
  • +0.1146thEPA / play93rd+0.12
  • 42.4%61stSuccess rate54th41.3%
  • 1.399thExplosiveness136th1.42
  • +0.0680thRush EPA / play131st+0.18
  • +0.2327thPass EPA / dropback57th+0.09
  • 46.4%78thStandard downs SR76th48.0%
  • 33.2%27thPassing downs SR19th28.7%
  • 2.95108thLine yards108th3.35
  • 14.4%85thHavoc rate111th12.2%
  • 5.1616thPoints / opportunity85th4.19
  • 65%63rdRed zone TD rate43rd52%

NC State's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (9th vs 136th).

OffenseCalifornia
CAL OFF

When California has the ball

DefenseNC State
NCSU DEF
  • 0.0097thEPA / play95th+0.12
  • 38.8%112thSuccess rate97th44.2%
  • 1.2790thExplosiveness107th1.34
  • −0.02123rdRush EPA / play121st+0.15
  • +0.0786thPass EPA / dropback116th+0.22
  • 44.2%117thStandard downs SR82nd48.3%
  • 29.2%105thPassing downs SR106th32.8%
  • 2.48136thLine yards95th3.23
  • 15.9%116thHavoc rate64th14.5%
  • 3.8498thPoints / opportunity119th4.74
  • 63%73rdRed zone TD rate130th79%

NC State's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (73rd vs 130th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, California and NC State, season to date
MetricCALCALNCSUNCSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral28.830.328.9
Plays per gamePlays per game70.969.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral58.4%55.1%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+7.2%+7.4%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral52.7%51.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations30%27%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession30:1832:2830:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 28.3Own 28.2Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

California

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report5 OUT · 5 DOUBTFUL · 3 PROBABLE

NC State

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report14 OUT

Broadcast

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Conditions & crew

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RefereeCrew TBA
RestCAL 14d · NCSU 8dCAL OFF BYE