California
3-43-4 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ACC Network
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh
WIN PROB
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NC State
3-43-4 · 1-3 ACC · ATS 2-5
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  NC State passvs California pass Dvs CAL pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 21st+0.13 | 57th−0.02 | 35 | NCSU +5.3 |
  California passvs NC State pass Dvs NCSU pass D | 84th−0.04 | 125th+0.13 | 43 | CAL +5.3 |
| NC State runvs California run Dvs CAL run D | 82nd−0.02 | 132nd+0.11 | 33 | NCSU +4.2 |
| California runvs NC State run Dvs NCSU run D | 123rd−0.09 | 124th+0.09 | 25 | NCSU +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · NCSU +5.3
NC State's passing game vs the California pass defense
NC State gains +0.24 EPA a play on the pass (21st); California allows +0.09 (57th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNC State
NCSU OFFWhen NC State has the ball
DefenseCalifornia
CAL DEF- +0.1244thEPA / play92nd+0.12
- 43.1%55thSuccess rate55th41.3%
- 1.3720thExplosiveness136th1.42
- +0.0582ndRush EPA / play132nd+0.18
- +0.2421stPass EPA / dropback57th+0.09
- 47.1%66thStandard downs SR77th48.0%
- 34.0%22ndPassing downs SR19th28.6%
- 2.96108thLine yards108th3.35
- 13.6%73rdHavoc rate111th12.2%
- 5.3111thPoints / opportunity85th4.19
- +0.0868thEarly-down EPA / play71st+0.04
- 52.3%11th3rd-down conversion102nd41.9%
- 16.7%84thStuff rate127th12.0%
- 4.3%52ndSack rate59th5.9%
- 69%45thRed zone TD rate41st52%
NC State's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (20th vs 136th).
OffenseCalifornia
CAL OFFWhen California has the ball
DefenseNC State
NCSU DEF- 0.0097thEPA / play115th+0.16
- 38.8%111thSuccess rate104th45.0%
- 1.2790thExplosiveness114th1.36
- −0.02123rdRush EPA / play124th+0.16
- +0.0784thPass EPA / dropback125th+0.24
- 44.2%116thStandard downs SR93rd49.2%
- 29.1%106thPassing downs SR106th32.7%
- 2.48136thLine yards112th3.38
- 15.9%116thHavoc rate90th13.3%
- 3.8498thPoints / opportunity112th4.68
- −0.01109thEarly-down EPA / play125th+0.16
- 38.7%83rd3rd-down conversion81st40.0%
- 22.8%133rdStuff rate64th16.9%
- 3.3%33rdSack rate127th2.9%
- 63%74thRed zone TD rate130th78%
California's offense rates higher in 8 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (33rd vs 127th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CALCAL | NCSUNCSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.8 | 31.2 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.9 | 68.9 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 58.4% | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +7.2% | +3.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.7% | 47.1% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 27% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:18 | 32:28 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.3 | Own 28.2 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%