ACC · 3-4 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 5-2
NC State Wolfpack
HC Dave Doeren (13th yr) · OC Kurt Roper · DC DJ Eliot
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (3 OF 6) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 99%
ACC · 3-4 · 1-3 CONF · ATS 2-5 · O/U 5-2
NC State
Wolfpack · HC Dave Doeren (13th yr) · starts in 11 (3 of 6) · base D 3-3-5
NC State
3-4 · 1-3 ACC
4 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
Latest from the beat
NC STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Virginiaat Virginia | L8–34 | +4+4 | L | −0.58 | 32% | 53% | 2% | 51 | 25.7 | |
| 2 |   RichmondRichmond | W73–0 | −33.5−33.5 | W | +1.76 | 71% | 25% | 100% | 70 | 30.1 | |
| 3 |   at Vanderbiltat Vanderbilt | L31–35 | +3+3 | L | −0.13 | 40% | 47% | 43% | 77 | 31.0 | |
| 4 |   App StateApp State | W41–31 | −13−13 | L | +0.12 | 53% | 38% | 76% | 76 | 28.1 | |
| 5 |   LouisvilleLouisville | W31–28 | +4.5+4.5 | W | +0.12 | 40% | 45% | 55% | 82 | 27.7 | |
| 6 |   Wake ForestWake Forest | L14–38 | +4+4 | L | −0.48 | 39% | 48% | 7% | 63 | 28.4 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   at Stanfordat Stanford | L28–31 | −7.5−7.5 | L | — | — | — | 60% | — | — | |
| 9 |   CaliforniaCaliforniaNEXT | SAT 12:00 ACC NetworkSAT 12:00 | −9.3 proj−9.3 | — | — | — | — | 71% | — | — | |
| 10 |   DukeDuke | NOV 7NOV 7 | +0.4 proj+0.4 | 49% | |||||||
| 11 |   SyracuseSyracuse | NOV 14NOV 14 | −4.9 proj−4.9 | 62% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Florida Stateat Florida State | NOV 21NOV 21 | +6.1 proj+6.1 | 36% | |||||||
| 13 |   at North Carolinaat North Carolina | NOV 28NOV 28 | +4.7 proj+4.7 | 39% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 410 OF 411 PLAYS410 OF 411 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun99% | 99% | 51% | +0.20 | 45% |
| Under center1% | 1% | 33% | +0.36 | 67% |
| No-huddle58% | 58% | 58% | +0.26 | 49% |
| Huddle42% | 42% | 41% | +0.12 | 41% |
In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.20 EPA a play; +0.35 under center). No-huddle on 58 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 3 of 6 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (2 of 4).
Next game
SAT 12:00 ACC Network · CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMSAT 12:00 ACC Network
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 46 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 46 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 2 games | −0.3 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 2 games | −1.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 1 game | +1.0 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | +1.6 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | −2.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on NC State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 8 games · + = more on NC State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | NC StateNCSU | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.11 | 46th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 61st | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.39 | 9th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.06 | 80th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.23 | 27th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 33.2% | 27th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 2.95 | 108th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.0% | 43rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 51% | 15th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.16 | 16th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 65% | 63rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.4 | 95th | 28.0 |