California
3-43-4 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 2-5
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · CW
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park
WIN PROB
84%
SMU
SMU
#23 · 5-1#23 · 5-1 · 3-1 ACC · ATS 1-3-2
- Spread
- SMU −19
- Open −17.5 · −110
- Total
- 55
- Open 52.5 · o −110
- Model line
- SMU −16.2+2.8
- Model total 53.8
- Win probability
- 84%
- Projected score
- 18.8 – 35.0
- CAL – SMU
- Projected plays
- 138
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- SMU −19
- open −17.5
- Model
- −16.2+2.8
- SMU
- Total
- 55
- model 53.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  SMU passvs California pass Dvs CAL pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 16th+0.14 | 57th−0.02 | 36 | SMU +6.3 |
  California passvs SMU pass Dvs SMU pass D | 86th−0.04 | 46th−0.05 | 44 | SMU +5.6 |
| California runvs SMU run Dvs SMU run D | 123rd−0.09 | 68th0.00 | 26 | SMU +3.5 |
| SMU runvs California run Dvs CAL run D | 97th−0.04 | 131st+0.11 | 33 | SMU +3.1 |
PaceCAL 28.8 s · SMU 25.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays138 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 138 | O 2.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · SMU +6.3
SMU's passing game vs the California pass defense
SMU gains +0.26 EPA a play on the pass (16th); California allows +0.09 (57th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSMU
SMU OFFWhen SMU has the ball
DefenseCalifornia
CAL DEF- +0.1337thEPA / play93rd+0.12
- 46.6%20thSuccess rate54th41.3%
- 1.3154thExplosiveness136th1.42
- +0.0397thRush EPA / play131st+0.18
- +0.2616thPass EPA / dropback57th+0.09
- 50.4%27thStandard downs SR76th48.0%
- 34.5%20thPassing downs SR19th28.7%
- 2.88121stLine yards108th3.35
- 10.6%23rdHavoc rate111th12.2%
- 3.76102ndPoints / opportunity85th4.19
- +0.1157thEarly-down EPA / play69th+0.04
- 48.6%23rd3rd-down conversion102nd41.9%
- 18.6%103rdStuff rate127th12.0%
- 3.6%39thSack rate58th5.9%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate43rd52%
SMU's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (23rd vs 111th).
OffenseCalifornia
CAL OFFWhen California has the ball
DefenseSMU
SMU DEF- 0.0097thEPA / play48th+0.02
- 38.8%112thSuccess rate36th40.1%
- 1.2790thExplosiveness69th1.30
- −0.02123rdRush EPA / play68th+0.07
- +0.0786thPass EPA / dropback46th+0.07
- 44.2%117thStandard downs SR65th46.9%
- 29.2%105thPassing downs SR10th28.0%
- 2.48136thLine yards48th2.90
- 15.9%116thHavoc rate34th15.9%
- 3.8498thPoints / opportunity65th4.00
- −0.01108thEarly-down EPA / play77th+0.05
- 38.7%83rd3rd-down conversion11th29.5%
- 22.8%133rdStuff rate51st18.0%
- 3.3%33rdSack rate7th8.9%
- 63%73rdRed zone TD rate116th73%
SMU's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (105th vs 10th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CALCAL | SMUSMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.8 | 25.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.9 | 67.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 58.4% | 52.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +7.2% | +5.0% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 52.7% | 47.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 36% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:18 | 29:51 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.3 | Own 33.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%