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SAT 12:30 · BTN · PISCATAWAY
Michigan
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
12:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · BTN
SHI Stadium · Piscataway
WIN PROB
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Rutgers
2-42-4 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-3
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Michigan runvs Rutgers run Dvs RUTG run DBIGGEST EDGE
72nd0.00135th+0.1540MICH +8.4
Rutgers runvs Michigan run Dvs MICH run D
101st−0.0518th−0.0835MICH +6.5
Rutgers passvs Michigan pass Dvs MICH pass D
50th+0.0421st−0.1133MICH +3.7
Michigan passvs Rutgers pass Dvs RUTG pass D
71st−0.0198th+0.0529MICH +1.9

BIGGEST EDGE · MICH +8.4

Michigan's run game vs the Rutgers run defense

Michigan gains +0.07 EPA a play on the run (72nd); Rutgers allows +0.22 (135th). About 40 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseRutgers
RUTG OFF

When Rutgers has the ball

DefenseMichigan
MICH DEF
  • +0.0667thEPA / play19th−0.06
  • 44.3%44thSuccess rate23rd38.5%
  • 1.3156thExplosiveness18th1.23
  • +0.02101stRush EPA / play18th−0.01
  • +0.1550thPass EPA / dropback21st0.00
  • 47.4%59thStandard downs SR22nd43.5%
  • 34.6%19thPassing downs SR25th29.0%
  • 3.1684thLine yards16th2.71
  • 15.1%102ndHavoc rate56th15.0%
  • 4.6649thPoints / opportunity14th3.08
  • 73%25thRed zone TD rate16th46%

Michigan's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (101st vs 18th).

OffenseMichigan
MICH OFF

When Michigan has the ball

DefenseRutgers
RUTG DEF
  • +0.0473rdEPA / play123rd+0.19
  • 41.4%76thSuccess rate125th47.2%
  • 1.26104thExplosiveness87th1.31
  • +0.0772ndRush EPA / play135th+0.22
  • +0.1171stPass EPA / dropback98th+0.17
  • 45.1%103rdStandard downs SR130th51.8%
  • 32.7%34thPassing downs SR111th33.1%
  • 3.1977thLine yards129th3.57
  • 15.7%109thHavoc rate100th13.0%
  • 3.69105thPoints / opportunity114th4.69
  • 64%68thRed zone TD rate71st62%

Michigan's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (34th vs 111th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Michigan and Rutgers, season to date
MetricMICHMICHRUTGRUTGFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.835.328.9
Plays per gamePlays per game57.066.265.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral42.6%46.0%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−6.6%0.0%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral40.8%51.9%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations18%49%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession28:1629:5630:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.5Own 30.1Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Michigan

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report4 OUT FOR SEASON · 3 OUT · 7 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE

Rutgers

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 1 OUT · 5 QUESTIONABLE · 2 PROBABLE

Broadcast

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Conditions & crew

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RefereeCrew TBA
RestMICH 14d · RUTG 14dBOTH OFF BYE