Michigan
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
12:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · BTN
SHI Stadium · Piscataway
WIN PROB
—
Rutgers
2-42-4 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- —
- Model
- —
- Total
- —
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Michigan runvs Rutgers run Dvs RUTG run DBIGGEST EDGE | 72nd0.00 | 135th+0.15 | 40 | MICH +8.4 |
  Rutgers runvs Michigan run Dvs MICH run D | 101st−0.05 | 18th−0.08 | 35 | MICH +6.5 |
| Rutgers passvs Michigan pass Dvs MICH pass D | 50th+0.04 | 21st−0.11 | 33 | MICH +3.7 |
| Michigan passvs Rutgers pass Dvs RUTG pass D | 71st−0.01 | 98th+0.05 | 29 | MICH +1.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MICH +8.4
Michigan's run game vs the Rutgers run defense
Michigan gains +0.07 EPA a play on the run (72nd); Rutgers allows +0.22 (135th). About 40 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseRutgers
RUTG OFFWhen Rutgers has the ball
DefenseMichigan
MICH DEF- +0.0667thEPA / play19th−0.06
- 44.3%44thSuccess rate23rd38.5%
- 1.3156thExplosiveness18th1.23
- +0.02101stRush EPA / play18th−0.01
- +0.1550thPass EPA / dropback21st0.00
- 47.4%59thStandard downs SR22nd43.5%
- 34.6%19thPassing downs SR25th29.0%
- 3.1684thLine yards16th2.71
- 15.1%102ndHavoc rate56th15.0%
- 4.6649thPoints / opportunity14th3.08
- +0.1253rdEarly-down EPA / play22nd−0.11
- 43.1%52nd3rd-down conversion29th32.9%
- 14.1%47thStuff rate48th18.1%
- 5.0%75thSack rate28th7.3%
- 73%25thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Michigan's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (101st vs 18th).
OffenseMichigan
MICH OFFWhen Michigan has the ball
DefenseRutgers
RUTG DEF- +0.0473rdEPA / play123rd+0.19
- 41.4%76thSuccess rate125th47.2%
- 1.26104thExplosiveness87th1.31
- +0.0772ndRush EPA / play135th+0.22
- +0.1171stPass EPA / dropback98th+0.17
- 45.1%103rdStandard downs SR130th51.8%
- 32.7%34thPassing downs SR111th33.1%
- 3.1977thLine yards129th3.57
- 15.7%109thHavoc rate100th13.0%
- 3.69105thPoints / opportunity114th4.69
- +0.0291stEarly-down EPA / play126th+0.17
- 40.3%68th3rd-down conversion79th39.3%
- 13.3%38thStuff rate69th16.5%
- 5.8%92ndSack rate116th3.8%
- 64%68thRed zone TD rate71st62%
Michigan's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (34th vs 111th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MICHMICH | RUTGRUTG | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.8 | 35.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 57.0 | 66.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 42.6% | 46.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −6.6% | 0.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 40.8% | 51.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 49% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:16 | 29:56 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.5 | Own 30.1 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%