Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State

Coastal Carolina

2-52-5 · 1-2 Sun Belt · ATS 3-4

2:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+

Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta

WIN PROB

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Georgia State

4-24-2 · 1-1 Sun Belt · ATS 5-1

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Georgia State passvs Coastal Carolina pass Dvs CCU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	28th+0.11	108th+0.08	31	GAST +8.6
Georgia State runvs Coastal Carolina run Dvs CCU run D	54th+0.02	125th+0.09	37	GAST +6.0
Coastal Carolina runvs Georgia State run Dvs GAST run D	69th0.00	128th+0.10	34	CCU +5.1
Coastal Carolina passvs Georgia State pass Dvs GAST pass D	90th−0.05	71st+0.01	34	GAST +2.1

BIGGEST EDGE · GAST +8.6

Georgia State's passing game vs the Coastal Carolina pass defense

Georgia State gains +0.22 EPA a play on the pass (28th); Coastal Carolina allows +0.19 (108th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseGeorgia State

GAST OFF

When Georgia State has the ball

DefenseCoastal Carolina

CCU DEF

+0.1340thEPA / play102nd+0.13
44.9%36thSuccess rate129th47.4%
1.3344thExplosiveness26th1.24
+0.0954thRush EPA / play125th+0.16
+0.2228thPass EPA / dropback108th+0.19
47.4%61stStandard downs SR133rd52.2%
35.4%12thPassing downs SR90th31.9%
3.4138thLine yards131st3.59
12.2%40thHavoc rate96th13.0%
4.6746thPoints / opportunity38th3.61
78%12thRed zone TD rate71st62%

Georgia State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (36th vs 129th).

OffenseCoastal Carolina

CCU OFF

When Coastal Carolina has the ball

DefenseGeorgia State

GAST DEF

+0.0194thEPA / play107th+0.13
38.4%121stSuccess rate66th42.0%
1.3719thExplosiveness130th1.40
+0.0769thRush EPA / play128th+0.17
+0.0790thPass EPA / dropback71st+0.12
42.8%130thStandard downs SR75th47.9%
31.4%57thPassing downs SR39th29.5%
3.3743rdLine yards89th3.21
15.7%112thHavoc rate38th15.7%
3.8994thPoints / opportunity84th4.19
60%84thRed zone TD rate74th62%

Georgia State's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (19th vs 130th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State, season to date
Metric	CCUCCU	GASTGAST	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	28.8	28.4	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	64.1	68.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	49.1%	44.0%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−1.2%	−5.8%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	44.8%	37.7%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	23%	32%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:01	30:09	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.7	Own 29.8	Own 29.8