- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Georgia State passvs Coastal Carolina pass Dvs CCU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 28th+0.11 | 108th+0.08 | 31 | GAST +8.6 |
| Georgia State runvs Coastal Carolina run Dvs CCU run D | 54th+0.02 | 125th+0.09 | 37 | GAST +6.0 |
  Coastal Carolina runvs Georgia State run Dvs GAST run D | 69th0.00 | 128th+0.10 | 34 | CCU +5.1 |
| Coastal Carolina passvs Georgia State pass Dvs GAST pass D | 90th−0.05 | 71st+0.01 | 34 | GAST +2.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · GAST +8.6
Georgia State's passing game vs the Coastal Carolina pass defense
Georgia State gains +0.22 EPA a play on the pass (28th); Coastal Carolina allows +0.19 (108th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Georgia State has the ball
- +0.1340thEPA / play102nd+0.13
- 44.9%36thSuccess rate129th47.4%
- 1.3344thExplosiveness26th1.24
- +0.0954thRush EPA / play125th+0.16
- +0.2228thPass EPA / dropback108th+0.19
- 47.4%61stStandard downs SR133rd52.2%
- 35.4%12thPassing downs SR90th31.9%
- 3.4138thLine yards131st3.59
- 12.2%40thHavoc rate96th13.0%
- 4.6746thPoints / opportunity38th3.61
- +0.1734thEarly-down EPA / play110th+0.10
- 50.8%16th3rd-down conversion126th46.5%
- 16.4%81stStuff rate134th10.2%
- 3.2%31stSack rate57th6.0%
- 78%12thRed zone TD rate71st62%
Georgia State's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (16th vs 126th).
When Coastal Carolina has the ball
- +0.0194thEPA / play107th+0.13
- 38.4%121stSuccess rate66th42.0%
- 1.3719thExplosiveness130th1.40
- +0.0769thRush EPA / play128th+0.17
- +0.0790thPass EPA / dropback71st+0.12
- 42.8%130thStandard downs SR75th47.9%
- 31.4%57thPassing downs SR39th29.5%
- 3.3743rdLine yards89th3.21
- 15.7%112thHavoc rate38th15.7%
- 3.8994thPoints / opportunity84th4.19
- +0.0484thEarly-down EPA / play115th+0.12
- 38.3%88th3rd-down conversion26th32.8%
- 15.6%72ndStuff rate20th21.8%
- 7.0%102ndSack rate10th8.3%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate74th62%
Georgia State's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (19th vs 130th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CCUCCU | GASTGAST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.8 | 28.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.1 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.1% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −1.2% | −5.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 44.8% | 37.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 23% | 32% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:01 | 30:09 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.7 | Own 29.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%