Marshall vs Old Dominion

Marshall

4-34-3 · 1-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-5

1:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+

S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk

WIN PROB

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Old Dominion

2-52-5 · 1-3 Sun Belt · ATS 1-6

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Marshall passvs Old Dominion pass Dvs ODU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	109th−0.08	47th−0.04	36	ODU +6.4
Old Dominion runvs Marshall run Dvs MRSH run D	133rd−0.14	96th+0.04	39	MRSH +5.2
Old Dominion passvs Marshall pass Dvs MRSH pass D	132nd−0.19	122nd+0.12	29	MRSH +2.8
Marshall runvs Old Dominion run Dvs ODU run D	60th+0.01	37th−0.05	32	ODU +2.2

BIGGEST EDGE · ODU +6.4

The Old Dominion pass defense vs Marshall's passing game

Marshall gains +0.03 EPA a play on the pass (109th); Old Dominion allows +0.07 (47th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseOld Dominion

ODU OFF

When Old Dominion has the ball

DefenseMarshall

MRSH DEF

−0.18137thEPA / play118th+0.16
32.6%138thSuccess rate106th45.1%
1.3533rdExplosiveness120th1.37
−0.07133rdRush EPA / play96th+0.11
−0.07132ndPass EPA / dropback122nd+0.24
36.0%138thStandard downs SR118th50.6%
30.1%88thPassing downs SR83rd31.5%
2.64131stLine yards85th3.20
23.1%138thHavoc rate109th12.4%
3.11128thPoints / opportunity57th3.84
50%119thRed zone TD rate29th50%

Marshall's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (119th vs 29th).

OffenseMarshall

MRSH OFF

When Marshall has the ball

DefenseOld Dominion

ODU DEF

−0.01101stEPA / play32nd−0.02
42.0%67thSuccess rate34th39.6%
1.23118thExplosiveness48th1.28
+0.0860thRush EPA / play37th+0.02
+0.03109thPass EPA / dropback47th+0.07
48.2%52ndStandard downs SR37th45.4%
29.7%97thPassing downs SR34th29.4%
3.4927thLine yards51st2.95
14.9%96thHavoc rate66th14.5%
3.64111thPoints / opportunity62nd3.95
54%109thRed zone TD rate11th45%

Old Dominion's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (109th vs 11th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Marshall and Old Dominion, season to date
Metric	MRSHMRSH	ODUODU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	28.0	26.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	68.1	61.4	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	51.7%	37.4%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+1.1%	−14.5%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	44.5%	35.6%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	15%	14%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:53	26:37	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.8	Own 27.7	Own 29.8