Marshall
4-34-3 · 1-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-5
1:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+
S.B. Ballard Stadium · Norfolk
WIN PROB
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Old Dominion
2-52-5 · 1-3 Sun Belt · ATS 1-6
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Marshall passvs Old Dominion pass Dvs ODU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 108th−0.08 | 47th−0.04 | 36 | ODU +6.4 |
  Old Dominion runvs Marshall run Dvs MRSH run D | 133rd−0.14 | 95th+0.04 | 39 | MRSH +5.2 |
| Old Dominion passvs Marshall pass Dvs MRSH pass D | 133rd−0.19 | 122nd+0.12 | 29 | MRSH +2.7 |
| Marshall runvs Old Dominion run Dvs ODU run D | 62nd+0.01 | 38th−0.05 | 32 | ODU +2.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ODU +6.4
The Old Dominion pass defense vs Marshall's passing game
Marshall gains +0.03 EPA a play on the pass (108th); Old Dominion allows +0.07 (47th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseOld Dominion
ODU OFFWhen Old Dominion has the ball
DefenseMarshall
MRSH DEF- −0.18137thEPA / play120th+0.16
- 32.6%138thSuccess rate108th45.1%
- 1.3533rdExplosiveness119th1.37
- −0.07133rdRush EPA / play95th+0.11
- −0.07133rdPass EPA / dropback122nd+0.24
- 36.0%138thStandard downs SR119th50.6%
- 30.0%88thPassing downs SR85th31.4%
- 2.64131stLine yards83rd3.20
- 23.1%138thHavoc rate109th12.4%
- 3.11128thPoints / opportunity57th3.84
- −0.18137thEarly-down EPA / play104th+0.09
- 31.8%126th3rd-down conversion88th40.5%
- 27.1%138thStuff rate81st15.7%
- 13.6%137thSack rate135th1.9%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate28th50%
Marshall's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (119th vs 28th).
OffenseMarshall
MRSH OFFWhen Marshall has the ball
DefenseOld Dominion
ODU DEF- −0.01100thEPA / play31st−0.01
- 42.0%66thSuccess rate34th39.6%
- 1.23118thExplosiveness47th1.28
- +0.0862ndRush EPA / play38th+0.02
- +0.03108thPass EPA / dropback47th+0.07
- 48.2%52ndStandard downs SR37th45.5%
- 29.7%96thPassing downs SR36th29.4%
- 3.4927thLine yards51st2.95
- 14.9%97thHavoc rate66th14.5%
- 3.64111thPoints / opportunity61st3.95
- +0.0198thEarly-down EPA / play41st−0.02
- 44.2%41st3rd-down conversion7th28.4%
- 13.9%43rdStuff rate39th18.8%
- 5.0%72ndSack rate85th5.0%
- 54%109thRed zone TD rate11th45%
Old Dominion's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (109th vs 11th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | MRSHMRSH | ODUODU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.0 | 26.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.1 | 61.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 51.7% | 37.4% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +1.1% | −14.5% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 44.5% | 35.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 14% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:53 | 26:37 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.8 | Own 27.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%