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SAT 3:30 · ESPN+ · MONROE
Southern Miss
1-51-5 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-4
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+
Malone Stadium · Monroe
WIN PROB
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UL Monroe
0-60-6 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 1-5
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Southern Miss passvs UL Monroe pass Dvs ULM pass DBIGGEST EDGE
96th−0.06132nd+0.1739USM +6.1
UL Monroe passvs Southern Miss pass Dvs USM pass D
117th−0.13100th+0.0636USM +3.6
Southern Miss runvs UL Monroe run Dvs ULM run D
100th−0.04114th+0.0629USM +0.8
UL Monroe runvs Southern Miss run Dvs USM run D
111th−0.06118th+0.0732ULM +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · USM +6.1

Southern Miss's passing game vs the UL Monroe pass defense

Southern Miss gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (96th); UL Monroe allows +0.28 (132nd). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUL Monroe
ULM OFF

When UL Monroe has the ball

DefenseSouthern Miss
USM DEF
  • −0.04112thEPA / play119th+0.16
  • 39.9%97thSuccess rate107th45.1%
  • 1.22121stExplosiveness80th1.31
  • +0.01111thRush EPA / play118th+0.14
  • −0.01117thPass EPA / dropback100th+0.17
  • 46.0%83rdStandard downs SR109th50.0%
  • 29.0%109thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
  • 2.92114thLine yards106th3.33
  • 17.7%130thHavoc rate125th11.5%
  • 3.8796thPoints / opportunity74th4.09
  • 60%84thRed zone TD rate55th57%

Southern Miss's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (121st vs 80th).

OffenseSouthern Miss
USM OFF

When Southern Miss has the ball

DefenseUL Monroe
ULM DEF
  • 0.0098thEPA / play132nd+0.22
  • 39.6%101stSuccess rate134th48.8%
  • 1.2788thExplosiveness45th1.27
  • +0.03100thRush EPA / play114th+0.13
  • +0.0696thPass EPA / dropback132nd+0.28
  • 46.6%77thStandard downs SR134th52.3%
  • 27.8%118thPassing downs SR128th35.2%
  • 3.4830thLine yards121st3.42
  • 11.9%39thHavoc rate131st11.0%
  • 3.59114thPoints / opportunity106th4.54
  • 56%103rdRed zone TD rate62nd59%

Southern Miss's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (39th vs 131st).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Southern Miss and UL Monroe, season to date
MetricUSMUSMULMULMFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral29.728.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.264.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral45.7%36.7%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−3.2%−10.1%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral37.9%35.9%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations29%30%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession25:4329:3930:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 26.8Own 26.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Southern Miss

SUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetSUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-3 report5 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE

UL Monroe

SUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetSUN BELT REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-3 report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 4 OUT · 1 DOUBTFUL · 1 QUESTIONABLE · 1 PROBABLE

Broadcast

ESPN+
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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Surface
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RefereeCrew TBA
RestUSM 14d · ULM 14dBOTH OFF BYE