Southern Miss
1-51-5 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-4
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · ESPN+
Malone Stadium · Monroe
WIN PROB
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UL Monroe
0-60-6 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 1-5
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southern Miss passvs UL Monroe pass Dvs ULM pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 96th−0.06 | 132nd+0.17 | 39 | USM +6.1 |
  UL Monroe passvs Southern Miss pass Dvs USM pass D | 117th−0.13 | 100th+0.06 | 36 | USM +3.6 |
| Southern Miss runvs UL Monroe run Dvs ULM run D | 100th−0.04 | 114th+0.06 | 29 | USM +0.8 |
| UL Monroe runvs Southern Miss run Dvs USM run D | 111th−0.06 | 118th+0.07 | 32 | ULM +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · USM +6.1
Southern Miss's passing game vs the UL Monroe pass defense
Southern Miss gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (96th); UL Monroe allows +0.28 (132nd). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUL Monroe
ULM OFFWhen UL Monroe has the ball
DefenseSouthern Miss
USM DEF- −0.04112thEPA / play119th+0.16
- 39.9%97thSuccess rate107th45.1%
- 1.22121stExplosiveness80th1.31
- +0.01111thRush EPA / play118th+0.14
- −0.01117thPass EPA / dropback100th+0.17
- 46.0%83rdStandard downs SR109th50.0%
- 29.0%109thPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 2.92114thLine yards106th3.33
- 17.7%130thHavoc rate125th11.5%
- 3.8796thPoints / opportunity74th4.09
- +0.0197thEarly-down EPA / play101st+0.08
- 32.4%124th3rd-down conversion110th43.0%
- 20.7%122ndStuff rate112th13.5%
- 5.3%81stSack rate16th8.0%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate55th57%
Southern Miss's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (81st vs 16th).
OffenseSouthern Miss
USM OFFWhen Southern Miss has the ball
DefenseUL Monroe
ULM DEF- 0.0098thEPA / play132nd+0.22
- 39.6%101stSuccess rate134th48.8%
- 1.2788thExplosiveness45th1.27
- +0.03100thRush EPA / play114th+0.13
- +0.0696thPass EPA / dropback132nd+0.28
- 46.6%77thStandard downs SR134th52.3%
- 27.8%118thPassing downs SR128th35.2%
- 3.4830thLine yards121st3.42
- 11.9%39thHavoc rate131st11.0%
- 3.59114thPoints / opportunity106th4.54
- +0.1062ndEarly-down EPA / play131st+0.20
- 29.5%133rd3rd-down conversion133rd50.0%
- 12.6%27thStuff rate113th13.4%
- 3.2%30thSack rate64th5.8%
- 56%103rdRed zone TD rate62nd59%
Southern Miss's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (39th vs 131st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | USMUSM | ULMULM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.7 | 28.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.2 | 64.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 45.7% | 36.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.2% | −10.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 37.9% | 35.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 29% | 30% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 25:43 | 29:39 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.8 | Own 26.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%