Oklahoma State vs Iowa State

Oklahoma State

4-24-2 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 5-1

7:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · FS1

Jack Trice Stadium · Ames

WIN PROB

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Iowa State

3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-3-1

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Oklahoma State passvs Iowa State pass Dvs ISU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	25th+0.12	70th+0.01	36	OKST +6.5
Iowa State passvs Oklahoma State pass Dvs OKST pass D	91st−0.05	66th−0.01	31	OKST +2.5
Iowa State runvs Oklahoma State run Dvs OKST run D	83rd−0.02	60th−0.02	37	OKST +2.1
Oklahoma State runvs Iowa State run Dvs ISU run D	57th+0.02	75th+0.01	32	OKST +1.3

BIGGEST EDGE · OKST +6.5

Oklahoma State's passing game vs the Iowa State pass defense

Oklahoma State gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (25th); Iowa State allows +0.12 (70th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseIowa State

ISU OFF

When Iowa State has the ball

DefenseOklahoma State

OKST DEF

+0.0474thEPA / play65th+0.04
39.4%102ndSuccess rate74th42.5%
1.3245thExplosiveness38th1.27
+0.0583rdRush EPA / play60th+0.05
+0.0691stPass EPA / dropback66th+0.11
44.7%110thStandard downs SR90th49.1%
29.4%100thPassing downs SR30th29.2%
2.97106thLine yards66th3.11
18.6%134thHavoc rate107th12.5%
5.0022ndPoints / opportunity89th4.22
+0.1155thEarly-down EPA / play106th+0.10
31.3%129th3rd-down conversion61st37.5%
22.1%131stStuff rate63rd16.9%
4.6%55thSack rate52nd6.2%
73%23rdRed zone TD rate94th67%

Oklahoma State's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (23rd vs 94th).

OffenseOklahoma State

OKST OFF

When Oklahoma State has the ball

DefenseIowa State

ISU DEF

+0.1432ndEPA / play64th+0.04
48.5%12thSuccess rate63rd41.8%
1.25109thExplosiveness106th1.34
+0.0957thRush EPA / play75th+0.08
+0.2325thPass EPA / dropback70th+0.12
53.4%8thStandard downs SR79th48.1%
32.4%38thPassing downs SR22nd28.8%
3.4631stLine yards92nd3.23
10.8%25thHavoc rate114th12.2%
4.2769thPoints / opportunity41st3.64
+0.295thEarly-down EPA / play105th+0.10
33.9%110th3rd-down conversion27th32.8%
11.8%22ndStuff rate97th14.6%
1.0%4thSack rate95th4.7%
48%128thRed zone TD rate77th63%

Oklahoma State's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (5th vs 105th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Oklahoma State and Iowa State, season to date
Metric	OKSTOKST	ISUISU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	26.1	31.4	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	70.2	62.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	55.0%	37.4%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+10.0%	−13.4%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	54.4%	34.1%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	33%	23%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:16	30:37	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.3	Own 27.6	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%