Virginia
4-44-4 · 2-3 ACC · ATS 3-4-1
3:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem
WIN PROB
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Wake Forest
#17 · 6-1#17 · 6-1 · 4-1 ACC · ATS 5-2
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wake Forest passvs Virginia pass Dvs UVA pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 9th+0.20 | 35th−0.07 | 36 | WAKE +6.8 |
  Virginia runvs Wake Forest run Dvs WAKE run D | 86th−0.02 | 19th−0.08 | 39 | WAKE +5.9 |
| Virginia passvs Wake Forest pass Dvs WAKE pass D | 87th−0.05 | 28th−0.08 | 29 | WAKE +5.4 |
| Wake Forest runvs Virginia run Dvs UVA run D | 29th+0.07 | 82nd+0.02 | 32 | WAKE +4.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · WAKE +6.8
Wake Forest's passing game vs the Virginia pass defense
Wake Forest gains +0.31 EPA a play on the pass (9th); Virginia allows +0.05 (35th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseWake Forest
WAKE OFFWhen Wake Forest has the ball
DefenseVirginia
UVA DEF- +0.248thEPA / play67th+0.05
- 47.2%16thSuccess rate56th41.4%
- 1.3723rdExplosiveness30th1.25
- +0.1429thRush EPA / play82nd+0.09
- +0.319thPass EPA / dropback35th+0.05
- 50.1%33rdStandard downs SR87th48.7%
- 36.9%4thPassing downs SR9th27.8%
- 3.4237thLine yards62nd3.03
- 9.5%13thHavoc rate52nd15.0%
- 5.0022ndPoints / opportunity56th3.84
- +0.322ndEarly-down EPA / play53rd0.00
- 50.0%17th3rd-down conversion46th35.5%
- 13.3%37thStuff rate72nd16.2%
- 4.9%67thSack rate50th6.2%
- 64%68thRed zone TD rate51st56%
Wake Forest's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: EPA / play (8th vs 67th).
OffenseVirginia
UVA OFFWhen Virginia has the ball
DefenseWake Forest
WAKE DEF- +0.0385thEPA / play23rd−0.05
- 42.4%61stSuccess rate36th40.1%
- 1.20128thExplosiveness2nd1.16
- +0.0586thRush EPA / play19th−0.01
- +0.0787thPass EPA / dropback28th+0.03
- 50.2%31stStandard downs SR41st45.8%
- 26.5%132ndPassing downs SR43rd29.7%
- 3.4235thLine yards12th2.67
- 12.2%40thHavoc rate39th15.7%
- 4.8536thPoints / opportunity36th3.60
- +0.0966thEarly-down EPA / play51st0.00
- 28.7%136th3rd-down conversion101st41.6%
- 14.2%50thStuff rate7th26.1%
- 9.8%132ndSack rate53rd6.1%
- 69%45thRed zone TD rate51st56%
Wake Forest's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (128th vs 2nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UVAUVA | WAKEWAKE | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.6 | 27.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.0 | 64.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 38.6% | 45.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −11.5% | −0.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 33.9% | 42.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 34% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:36 | 28:24 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.0 | Own 31.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%