Skip to content
Slate
SAT 3:45 · WINSTON-SALEM
Virginia
4-44-4 · 2-3 ACC · ATS 3-4-1
3:45 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem
WIN PROB
—
 
Wake Forest
#17 · 6-1#17 · 6-1 · 4-1 ACC · ATS 5-2
Spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model line
—
 
Win probability
—
Projected score
—
 
Projected plays
—
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
—
 
Model
—
 
Total
—
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Wake Forest passvs Virginia pass Dvs UVA pass DBIGGEST EDGE
9th+0.2035th−0.0736WAKE +6.8
Virginia runvs Wake Forest run Dvs WAKE run D
86th−0.0219th−0.0839WAKE +5.9
Virginia passvs Wake Forest pass Dvs WAKE pass D
87th−0.0528th−0.0829WAKE +5.4
Wake Forest runvs Virginia run Dvs UVA run D
29th+0.0782nd+0.0232WAKE +4.0

BIGGEST EDGE · WAKE +6.8

Wake Forest's passing game vs the Virginia pass defense

Wake Forest gains +0.31 EPA a play on the pass (9th); Virginia allows +0.05 (35th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseWake Forest
WAKE OFF

When Wake Forest has the ball

DefenseVirginia
UVA DEF
  • +0.248thEPA / play67th+0.05
  • 47.2%16thSuccess rate56th41.4%
  • 1.3723rdExplosiveness30th1.25
  • +0.1429thRush EPA / play82nd+0.09
  • +0.319thPass EPA / dropback35th+0.05
  • 50.1%33rdStandard downs SR87th48.7%
  • 36.9%4thPassing downs SR9th27.8%
  • 3.4237thLine yards62nd3.03
  • 9.5%13thHavoc rate52nd15.0%
  • 5.0022ndPoints / opportunity56th3.84
  • 64%68thRed zone TD rate51st56%

Wake Forest's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: EPA / play (8th vs 67th).

OffenseVirginia
UVA OFF

When Virginia has the ball

DefenseWake Forest
WAKE DEF
  • +0.0385thEPA / play23rd−0.05
  • 42.4%61stSuccess rate36th40.1%
  • 1.20128thExplosiveness2nd1.16
  • +0.0586thRush EPA / play19th−0.01
  • +0.0787thPass EPA / dropback28th+0.03
  • 50.2%31stStandard downs SR41st45.8%
  • 26.5%132ndPassing downs SR43rd29.7%
  • 3.4235thLine yards12th2.67
  • 12.2%40thHavoc rate39th15.7%
  • 4.8536thPoints / opportunity36th3.60
  • 69%45thRed zone TD rate51st56%

Wake Forest's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (128th vs 2nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Virginia and Wake Forest, season to date
MetricUVAUVAWAKEWAKEFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.627.028.9
Plays per gamePlays per game67.064.465.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral38.6%45.1%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−11.5%−0.6%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral33.9%42.5%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations34%26%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:3628:2430:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.0Own 31.3Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Virginia

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 game-day report5 OUT FOR SEASON · 19 OUT

Wake Forest

ACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetACC REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report6 OUT · 2 GAME-TIME DECISION

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
—
mph
—
Precip
—
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestUVA 8d · WAKE 14dWAKE OFF BYE