Ohio State
#3 · 6-1#3 · 6-1 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 5-2
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · NBC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles
WIN PROB
—
USC
#16 · 6-1#16 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 2-5
- Spread
- OSU −6.5
- Open −7.5 · −120
- Total
- 53.5
- Open 54.5 · o −106
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- OSU −6.5
- open −7.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 53.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Ohio State passvs USC pass Dvs USC pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 6th+0.21 | 113th+0.10 | 34 | OSU +15.2 |
  USC passvs Ohio State pass Dvs OSU pass D | 1st+0.30 | 8th−0.18 | 35 | USC +6.1 |
| USC runvs Ohio State run Dvs OSU run D | 64th+0.01 | 23rd−0.07 | 33 | OSU +3.1 |
| Ohio State runvs USC run Dvs USC run D | 34th+0.06 | 70th0.00 | 34 | OSU +3.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · OSU +15.2
Ohio State's passing game vs the USC pass defense
Ohio State gains +0.33 EPA a play on the pass (6th); USC allows +0.21 (113th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUSC
USC OFFWhen USC has the ball
DefenseOhio State
OSU DEF- +0.264thEPA / play7th−0.12
- 49.6%6thSuccess rate8th36.2%
- 1.3155thExplosiveness47th1.28
- +0.0864thRush EPA / play23rd0.00
- +0.411stPass EPA / dropback8th−0.06
- 52.1%14thStandard downs SR4th40.7%
- 37.8%3rdPassing downs SR51st30.0%
- 3.4234thLine yards37th2.85
- 9.1%8thHavoc rate61st14.7%
- 4.8831stPoints / opportunity25th3.33
- +0.2222ndEarly-down EPA / play9th−0.16
- 49.3%21st3rd-down conversion98th41.3%
- 14.3%51stStuff rate53rd17.8%
- 2.7%19thSack rate129th2.6%
- 68%54thRed zone TD rate28th50%
USC's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (19th vs 129th).
OffenseOhio State
OSU OFFWhen Ohio State has the ball
DefenseUSC
USC DEF- +0.2310thEPA / play101st+0.13
- 49.4%7thSuccess rate68th42.1%
- 1.3535thExplosiveness132nd1.40
- +0.1334thRush EPA / play70th+0.07
- +0.336thPass EPA / dropback113th+0.21
- 53.6%7thStandard downs SR52nd46.3%
- 33.1%29thPassing downs SR99th32.3%
- 3.3941stLine yards29th2.78
- 13.1%60thHavoc rate120th11.7%
- 4.9725thPoints / opportunity122nd4.81
- +0.2413thEarly-down EPA / play77th+0.05
- 45.8%32nd3rd-down conversion19th31.3%
- 14.1%48thStuff rate88th15.2%
- 5.5%84thSack rate96th4.6%
- 68%52ndRed zone TD rate94th67%
Ohio State's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (6th vs 113th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | OSUOSU | USCUSC | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.4 | 29.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.0 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.0% | 54.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +1.8% | +8.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 46.7% | 53.7% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 36% | 43% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:07 | 32:50 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.8 | Own 28.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%