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SAT 7:30 · NBC · LOS ANGELES
Ohio State
#3 · 6-1#3 · 6-1 · 4-0 Big Ten · ATS 5-2
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · NBC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles
WIN PROB
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USC
#16 · 6-1#16 · 6-1 · 3-1 Big Ten · ATS 2-5
Spread
OSU −6.5
Open −7.5 · −120
Total
53.5
Open 54.5 · o −106
Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
OSU −6.5
open −7.5
Model
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Total
53.5
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Ohio State passvs USC pass Dvs USC pass DBIGGEST EDGE
6th+0.21113th+0.1034OSU +15.2
USC passvs Ohio State pass Dvs OSU pass D
1st+0.308th−0.1835USC +6.1
USC runvs Ohio State run Dvs OSU run D
64th+0.0123rd−0.0733OSU +3.1
Ohio State runvs USC run Dvs USC run D
34th+0.0670th0.0034OSU +3.1

BIGGEST EDGE · OSU +15.2

Ohio State's passing game vs the USC pass defense

Ohio State gains +0.33 EPA a play on the pass (6th); USC allows +0.21 (113th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUSC
USC OFF

When USC has the ball

DefenseOhio State
OSU DEF
  • +0.264thEPA / play7th−0.12
  • 49.6%6thSuccess rate8th36.2%
  • 1.3155thExplosiveness47th1.28
  • +0.0864thRush EPA / play23rd0.00
  • +0.411stPass EPA / dropback8th−0.06
  • 52.1%14thStandard downs SR4th40.7%
  • 37.8%3rdPassing downs SR51st30.0%
  • 3.4234thLine yards37th2.85
  • 9.1%8thHavoc rate61st14.7%
  • 4.8831stPoints / opportunity25th3.33
  • 68%54thRed zone TD rate28th50%

USC's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (8th vs 61st).

OffenseOhio State
OSU OFF

When Ohio State has the ball

DefenseUSC
USC DEF
  • +0.2310thEPA / play101st+0.13
  • 49.4%7thSuccess rate68th42.1%
  • 1.3535thExplosiveness132nd1.40
  • +0.1334thRush EPA / play70th+0.07
  • +0.336thPass EPA / dropback113th+0.21
  • 53.6%7thStandard downs SR52nd46.3%
  • 33.1%29thPassing downs SR99th32.3%
  • 3.3941stLine yards29th2.78
  • 13.1%60thHavoc rate120th11.7%
  • 4.9725thPoints / opportunity122nd4.81
  • 68%52ndRed zone TD rate94th67%

Ohio State's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (6th vs 113th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Ohio State and USC, season to date
MetricOSUOSUUSCUSCFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral30.429.128.9
Plays per gamePlays per game68.068.365.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral53.0%54.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+1.8%+8.6%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral46.7%53.7%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations36%43%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:0732:5030:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 31.8Own 28.7Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~WED · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Ohio State

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 7 game-day report7 OUT · 2 GAME-TIME DECISION

USC

BIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)% TO PLAYIMPACT
No report yetBIG TEN REPORT EXPECTED ~WED (T-3)
Week 8 T-1 report4 OUT FOR SEASON · 2 OUT · 3 QUESTIONABLE · 2 PROBABLE

Line movement

  • FRI 7:33PSpread −7.5 → −6.5
  • FRI 7:33PTotal 54.5 → 53.5
Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread OSU
−7.5−6.5—
Total
54.553.5—
Moneyline OSU
−325−246—

Broadcast

NBC
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
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mph
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Surface
Grass
RefereeCrew TBA
RestOSU 14d · USC 21dBOTH OFF BYE