Illinois vs Maryland

Illinois

3-33-3 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · FS1

SECU Stadium · College Park

WIN PROB

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Maryland

2-52-5 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 3-4

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Maryland passvs Illinois pass Dvs ILL pass DBIGGEST EDGE	114th−0.11	136th+0.22	42	MD +6.6
Illinois passvs Maryland pass Dvs MD pass D	32nd+0.08	81st+0.02	37	ILL +5.5
Illinois runvs Maryland run Dvs MD run D	72nd0.00	110th+0.06	31	ILL +2.7
Maryland runvs Illinois run Dvs ILL run D	81st−0.02	91st+0.04	26	MD +0.8

BIGGEST EDGE · MD +6.6

Maryland's passing game vs the Illinois pass defense

Maryland gains +0.01 EPA a play on the pass (114th); Illinois allows +0.33 (136th). About 42 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMaryland

MD OFF

When Maryland has the ball

DefenseIllinois

ILL DEF

+0.0194thEPA / play134th+0.23
40.2%92ndSuccess rate119th46.4%
1.3343rdExplosiveness95th1.33
+0.0581stRush EPA / play91st+0.11
+0.01114thPass EPA / dropback136th+0.33
45.1%103rdStandard downs SR101st49.5%
30.1%87thPassing downs SR129th35.4%
2.72127thLine yards65th3.11
12.4%47thHavoc rate119th11.7%
4.2173rdPoints / opportunity133rd5.33
65%61stRed zone TD rate93rd65%

Maryland's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (47th vs 119th).

OffenseIllinois

ILL OFF

When Illinois has the ball

DefenseMaryland

MD DEF

+0.1527thEPA / play76th+0.07
46.8%17thSuccess rate83rd43.2%
1.26101stExplosiveness85th1.31
+0.0772ndRush EPA / play110th+0.13
+0.2032ndPass EPA / dropback81st+0.14
50.1%33rdStandard downs SR63rd46.8%
34.8%16thPassing downs SR126th34.7%
3.3054thLine yards75th3.14
10.2%18thHavoc rate80th14.1%
4.4462ndPoints / opportunity138th5.88
58%93rdRed zone TD rate138th95%

Illinois's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (16th vs 126th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Illinois and Maryland, season to date
Metric	ILLILL	MDMD	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.3	25.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	61.8	67.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	54.2%	56.8%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+1.8%	+7.3%	−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	50.4%	55.1%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	37%	27%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:30	27:03	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.8	Own 30.8	Own 29.8