Illinois
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · FS1
SECU Stadium · College Park
WIN PROB
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Maryland
2-52-5 · 0-4 Big Ten · ATS 3-4
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Maryland passvs Illinois pass Dvs ILL pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 114th−0.10 | 136th+0.22 | 42 | MD +6.9 |
  Illinois passvs Maryland pass Dvs MD pass D | 32nd+0.08 | 82nd+0.02 | 37 | ILL +5.7 |
| Illinois runvs Maryland run Dvs MD run D | 71st0.00 | 110th+0.06 | 31 | ILL +2.7 |
| Maryland runvs Illinois run Dvs ILL run D | 78th−0.01 | 92nd+0.04 | 26 | MD +0.9 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MD +6.9
Maryland's passing game vs the Illinois pass defense
Maryland gains +0.01 EPA a play on the pass (114th); Illinois allows +0.33 (136th). About 42 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMaryland
MD OFFWhen Maryland has the ball
DefenseIllinois
ILL DEF- +0.0192ndEPA / play134th+0.23
- 40.4%89thSuccess rate118th46.4%
- 1.3343rdExplosiveness96th1.32
- +0.0678thRush EPA / play92nd+0.11
- +0.01114thPass EPA / dropback136th+0.33
- 45.1%102ndStandard downs SR99th49.5%
- 30.2%87thPassing downs SR129th35.4%
- 2.72127thLine yards65th3.11
- 12.4%46thHavoc rate119th11.7%
- 4.2173rdPoints / opportunity132nd5.33
- +0.0773rdEarly-down EPA / play134th+0.24
- 33.8%114th3rd-down conversion118th44.9%
- 21.6%127thStuff rate103rd14.4%
- 2.1%13thSack rate131st2.3%
- 65%62ndRed zone TD rate92nd65%
Maryland's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (13th vs 131st).
OffenseIllinois
ILL OFFWhen Illinois has the ball
DefenseMaryland
MD DEF- +0.1526thEPA / play75th+0.07
- 47.0%17thSuccess rate83rd43.2%
- 1.26103rdExplosiveness86th1.31
- +0.0771stRush EPA / play110th+0.13
- +0.2032ndPass EPA / dropback82nd+0.14
- 50.3%28thStandard downs SR63rd46.7%
- 34.8%16thPassing downs SR126th34.7%
- 3.3052ndLine yards75th3.14
- 10.2%17thHavoc rate79th14.1%
- 4.4462ndPoints / opportunity138th5.88
- +0.296thEarly-down EPA / play94th+0.08
- 44.3%40th3rd-down conversion121st45.8%
- 11.0%17thStuff rate92nd15.0%
- 2.7%18thSack rate76th5.3%
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate138th95%
Illinois's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (16th vs 126th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ILLILL | MDMD | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.3 | 25.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 61.8 | 67.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.2% | 56.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +1.8% | +7.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 50.4% | 55.1% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 37% | 27% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:30 | 27:03 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.8 | Own 30.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%