reportedDaily Illini football desk@By Brendan Gallian, Staff Writer
10hUnconfirmed tip on Smith’s status against Oregon on Saturday.
Champ Smith · OLCHECKING
Big Ten · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 5-1
Illinois Fighting Illini
HC Bret Bielema (6th yr) · OC Barry Lunney Jr. · DC Bobby Hauck
STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 91%
Power rating−1.379th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFOUT→OUT
Proj. wins4.7of 12
Fan pulse+8▲16
Big Ten · 3-3 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 2-4 · O/U 5-1
Illinois
Fighting Illini · HC Bret Bielema (6th yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 3-3-5
Power rating−1.379th
CFP odds · outlook0%—OUT→OUT
Proj. wins4.7of 12
Fan pulse+8▲16
Illinois
3-3 · 1-2 Big Ten
POWER RATING−1.379th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS4.7of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKOUT→OUT
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%
FAN PULSE+8▲16
29 pts above the model ·Coverage →
Latest from the beat
ILLINOIS · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →reportedDaily Illini football desk@By Brendan Gallian, Staff Writer
10hUnconfirmed tip on Schuster’s status against Oregon on Saturday.
Dezmond Schuster · OLCHECKING
reportedDaily Illini football desk@By Brendan Gallian, Staff Writer
10hUnconfirmed tip: Platt could be questionable against Oregon on Saturday.
Jayshon Platt · WRCHECKING
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   UABUAB | W42–23 | −26−26 | L | +0.43 | 57% | 41% | 85% | 42 | 27.7 | |
| 2 |   DukeDuke | L27–31 | −6.5−6.5 | L | −0.26 | 51% | 48% | 41% | 67 | 32.8 | |
| 3 |   Southern IllinoisSouthern Illinois | W48–10 | −35−35 | W | +0.50 | 58% | 33% | 98% | 57 | 29.9 | |
| 4 |   at Ohio Stateat Ohio State | L19–42 | +25.5+25.5 | W | −0.42 | 44% | 61% | 10% | 70 | 22.8 | |
| 5 |   PurduePurdue | L17–24 | −10−10 | L | −0.14 | 42% | 47% | 43% | 65 | 26.4 | |
| 6 |   at Michigan Stateat Michigan State | W38–37 | −2.5−2.5 | L | −0.17 | 51% | 50% | 37% | 70 | 35.7 | |
| 7 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 8 |   OregonOregonNEXT | SAT 3:00 BTNSAT 3:00 | +9.5+9.5 | — | — | — | — | 26% | 132 | — | |
| 9 |   at Marylandat Maryland | OCT 31OCT 31 | +0.3 proj+0.3 | 49% | |||||||
| 10 |   NebraskaNebraska | NOV 6NOV 6 | +11.4 proj+11.4 | 24% | |||||||
| 11 |   at UCLAat UCLA | NOV 13NOV 13 | +15.1 proj+15.1 | 18% | |||||||
| 12 |   IowaIowa | NOV 21NOV 21 | +6.3 proj+6.3 | 35% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Northwesternat Northwestern | NOV 28NOV 28 | +12.2 proj+12.2 | 23% |
Success rate by down & distance
1st75%n 4100%n 149%n 1440%n 4
2nd81%n 2165%n 2642%n 5762%n 13
3rd52%n 2358%n 1233%n 210%n 5
4th57%n 70%n 4—n 0100%n 1
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 342 OF 343 PLAYS342 OF 343 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun91% | 91% | 58% | +0.19 | 49% |
| Under center9% | 9% | 25% | +0.17 | 59% |
| No-huddle16% | 16% | 60% | +0.07 | 45% |
| Huddle84% | 84% | 54% | +0.21 | 51% |
StartersSTARTERS
115 of 6 games121 of 6BASE D3-3-56 of 6
115 of 63-3-5base D · 6 of 6
In shotgun on 91 % of tagged snaps, passing 58 % of the time (+0.19 EPA a play; +0.17 under center). No-huddle on 16 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (6 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:00 BTN · MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)SAT 3:00 BTN
TOP INJURY · OFFICIAL REPORT
O
Katin HouserQB · SR
QB · top injuryNEXT UPM. C. IIΔ −0.11 EPA/play
0%TO PLAY
−3.9IMPACT PTS
% to play = 1 − P(out) · expected return not reported
LINE · MODEL · WPIMPACT −3.9 PTS
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ten crews−0.4 to +0.4 · 50 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.4 | 50 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 3 games | +0.9 | — | 3 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 2 games | −1.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | +1.5 | — | 1 | NOISE |
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTMark Kluczynski−1.7 / g · 6 games · noise−1.7 / g · 6 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTJeffrey Servinski+2.6 / g · 4 games · noise+2.6 / g · 4 g · noise
+ = more judgment flags on Illinois than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 7 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 7 games · + = more on Illinois than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
QB · #4 · RS-SRKatin Houser+0.26EPA/dropback · 44thCPOE+5.3aDOT10.2Sack %3.1%RB · #21 · RS-SRAidan Laughery42.6%rush SR · 141stYards per carry6.3Explosive rate8.2%Rush EPA+0.20WR · #17 · RS-JRCollin Dixon3.15YPTPA · 15thTarget share33.2%EPA / target+0.86aDOT11.1DL · #43 · JRJoe Barna5havoc plays · 122ndTFL4Sacks0.5Forced fumbles1
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | IllinoisILL | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.15 | 27th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.8% | 17th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 | 101st | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.07 | 72nd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.20 | 32nd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 34.8% | 16th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.30 | 54th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 2.7% | 18th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44% | 41st | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.44 | 62nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 58% | 93rd | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 29.3 | 93rd | 28.0 |