- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Florida International runvs Liberty run Dvs LIB run DBIGGEST EDGE | 134th−0.14 | 14th−0.10 | 33 | LIB +11.8 |
| Florida International passvs Liberty pass Dvs LIB pass D | 101st−0.07 | 19th−0.13 | 35 | LIB +9.9 |
  Liberty runvs Florida International run Dvs FIU run D | 14th+0.10 | 32nd−0.06 | 43 | LIB +2.7 |
| Liberty passvs Florida International pass Dvs FIU pass D | 51st+0.04 | 26th−0.09 | 26 | FIU +1.8 |
BIGGEST EDGE · LIB +11.8
The Liberty run defense vs Florida International's run game
Florida International gains −0.07 EPA a play on the run (134th); Liberty allows −0.03 (14th). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Liberty has the ball
- +0.1147thEPA / play30th−0.02
- 45.3%35thSuccess rate45th40.6%
- 1.23117thExplosiveness33rd1.25
- +0.1714thRush EPA / play32nd+0.01
- +0.1551stPass EPA / dropback26th+0.03
- 50.6%24thStandard downs SR60th46.6%
- 31.2%61stPassing downs SR20th28.7%
- 3.783rdLine yards45th2.89
- 14.0%81stHavoc rate58th15.0%
- 4.1874thPoints / opportunity19th3.17
- +0.1833rdEarly-down EPA / play18th−0.12
- 39.1%77th3rd-down conversion6th28.1%
- 10.4%10thStuff rate41st18.5%
- 6.9%101stSack rate75th5.3%
- 58%95thRed zone TD rate3rd32%
Florida International's defense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (95th vs 3rd).
When Florida International has the ball
- −0.09127thEPA / play15th−0.07
- 38.1%124thSuccess rate20th38.2%
- 1.2887thExplosiveness15th1.22
- −0.07134thRush EPA / play14th−0.03
- +0.04101stPass EPA / dropback19th−0.01
- 43.1%129thStandard downs SR16th43.2%
- 31.0%69thPassing downs SR29th29.2%
- 2.91116thLine yards14th2.68
- 13.4%65thHavoc rate26th16.9%
- 2.90134thPoints / opportunity2nd2.27
- −0.07122ndEarly-down EPA / play5th−0.17
- 46.4%30th3rd-down conversion8th28.6%
- 18.4%101stStuff rate8th25.4%
- 2.4%16thSack rate106th4.3%
- 39%134thRed zone TD rate2nd27%
Liberty's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: points per opportunity (134th vs 2nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | FIUFIU | LIBLIB | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.8 | 34.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.6 | 63.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.1% | 30.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −1.9% | −14.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 50.8% | 29.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 36% | 20% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:34 | 33:25 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.7 | Own 34.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%