Northern Illinois
0-60-6 · 0-2 Mountain West · ATS 1-5
10:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · CBSSN
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas
WIN PROB
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UNLV
4-34-3 · 2-1 Mountain West · ATS 4-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Northern Illinois passvs UNLV pass Dvs UNLV pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 126th−0.15 | 17th−0.13 | 40 | UNLV +16.3 |
  UNLV passvs Northern Illinois pass Dvs NIU pass D | 52nd+0.03 | 127th+0.14 | 30 | UNLV +7.4 |
| UNLV runvs Northern Illinois run Dvs NIU run D | 93rd−0.03 | 133rd+0.13 | 38 | UNLV +5.0 |
| Northern Illinois runvs UNLV run Dvs UNLV run D | 79th−0.02 | 81st+0.02 | 28 | NIU +0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UNLV +16.3
The UNLV pass defense vs Northern Illinois's passing game
Northern Illinois gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (126th); UNLV allows −0.01 (17th). About 40 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseUNLV
UNLV OFFWhen UNLV has the ball
DefenseNorthern Illinois
NIU DEF- +0.0478thEPA / play137th+0.25
- 39.0%107thSuccess rate136th49.2%
- 1.3721stExplosiveness82nd1.31
- +0.0493rdRush EPA / play133rd+0.19
- +0.1452ndPass EPA / dropback127th+0.25
- 45.0%107thStandard downs SR135th52.6%
- 29.2%103rdPassing downs SR132nd35.8%
- 3.2269thLine yards134th3.65
- 13.2%63rdHavoc rate137th8.0%
- 3.52118thPoints / opportunity133rd5.35
- 0.00106thEarly-down EPA / play135th+0.24
- 43.6%46th3rd-down conversion138th63.6%
- 14.8%57thStuff rate132nd10.8%
- 7.4%111thSack rate56th6.0%
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate124th76%
UNLV's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: third-down conversion (46th vs 138th).
OffenseNorthern Illinois
NIU OFFWhen Northern Illinois has the ball
DefenseUNLV
UNLV DEF- −0.05113thEPA / play50th+0.03
- 38.5%118thSuccess rate50th41.1%
- 1.2796thExplosiveness107th1.34
- +0.0579thRush EPA / play81st+0.09
- −0.04126thPass EPA / dropback17th−0.01
- 45.4%97thStandard downs SR45th45.9%
- 27.4%125thPassing downs SR64th30.5%
- 3.4333rdLine yards133rd3.64
- 15.5%107thHavoc rate68th14.4%
- 2.96133rdPoints / opportunity88th4.22
- +0.0387thEarly-down EPA / play61st+0.02
- 30.9%131st3rd-down conversion64th38.3%
- 17.5%94thStuff rate120th12.6%
- 8.0%117thSack rate35th7.1%
- 50%119thRed zone TD rate27th48%
UNLV's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (126th vs 17th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | NIUNIU | UNLVUNLV | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.1 | 29.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.7 | 64.9 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 43.4% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −7.8% | −8.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 41.4% | 36.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 30% | 26% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:40 | 28:02 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 26.7 | Own 28.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%