James Madison vs Southern Miss

James Madison

7-27-2 · 4-2 Sun Belt · ATS 6-3

8:00 PM ET

Thu, Nov 5 · ESPN2

M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg

WIN PROB

80%

JMU

Southern Miss

3-53-5 · 2-2 Sun Belt · ATS 4-4

Spread: JMU −13.5; Open −14.5 · −109
Total: 58; Open 55.5 · o −110
Model line: JMU −13.8; Model total 51.6
Win probability: 80%
Projected score: 32.7 – 18.9; JMU – USM
Projected plays: 139; FBS avg 132 · 28.8 s/play

Spread: JMU −13.5; open −14.5
Model: −13.8; JMU
Total: 58; model 51.6

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Southern Miss passvs James Madison pass Dvs JMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	119th−0.13	47th−0.04	37	JMU +9.3
James Madison passvs Southern Miss pass Dvs USM pass D	36th+0.08	80th+0.03	33	JMU +4.7
James Madison runvs Southern Miss run Dvs USM run D	55th+0.02	105th+0.05	37	JMU +3.7
PaceJMU 24.0 s · USM 21.9 s a snap · avg 132 plays139 plays vs 132 avg	—	—	139	O 2.9
Southern Miss runvs James Madison run Dvs JMU run D	44th+0.03	19th−0.08	32	JMU +2.6

BIGGEST EDGE · JMU +9.3

The James Madison pass defense vs Southern Miss's passing game

Southern Miss gains −0.03 EPA a play on the pass (119th); James Madison allows +0.06 (47th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSouthern Miss

USM OFF

When Southern Miss has the ball

DefenseJames Madison

JMU DEF

−0.0193rdEPA / play39th−0.01
38.3%117thSuccess rate37th39.6%
1.3158thExplosiveness64th1.29
+0.1044thRush EPA / play19th−0.01
−0.03119thPass EPA / dropback47th+0.06
46.0%80thStandard downs SR30th44.4%
25.8%133rdPassing downs SR54th29.9%
3.5812thLine yards45th2.93
12.1%36thHavoc rate40th15.5%
3.61112thPoints / opportunity33rd3.58
60%85thRed zone TD rate41st54%

James Madison's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (117th vs 37th).

OffenseJames Madison

JMU OFF

When James Madison has the ball

DefenseSouthern Miss

USM DEF

+0.0850thEPA / play101st+0.12
41.7%68thSuccess rate107th44.6%
1.3436thExplosiveness59th1.29
+0.0955thRush EPA / play105th+0.13
+0.1836thPass EPA / dropback80th+0.13
45.3%94thStandard downs SR103rd49.7%
33.7%22ndPassing downs SR68th30.5%
3.2757thLine yards105th3.31
11.1%19thHavoc rate94th13.1%
4.4561stPoints / opportunity63rd3.93
71%30thRed zone TD rate62nd59%

James Madison's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (19th vs 94th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, James Madison and Southern Miss, season to date
Metric	JMUJMU	USMUSM	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	24.0	21.9	28.8
Plays per gamePlays per game	69.2	70.1	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	51.7%	46.6%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+1.1%	−1.1%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	47.4%	40.4%	44.8%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	21%	35%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:10	25:43	30:05
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 35.3	Own 28.9	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

James Madison

SUN BELT REPORT · THU 10:33 AMNET −3.4% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
George Pettaway · RBGeorge PettawayRB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → GD
0%−2.8
Out
Jayon Harvey · SJayon HarveyS · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → GD
0%−0.5
Out
KD Mosley · TEKD MosleyTE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out
Tanner Vibabul · QBTanner VibabulQB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Game-time decision
Kylan Billiot · WRKylan BilliotWR · FRReport trail: not listed, not listed, Game-time decisionT-3 → GD
71%0.0
Available
Noah Grevious · WRNoah GreviousWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0

Southern Miss

SUN BELT REPORT · THU 10:33 AMNET −0.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Jahmir Davis · OLJahmir DavisOL · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out for season
Jeffery Rush Jr. · DLJeffery Rush Jr.DL · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out for season
Jeremiah Dillon · CBJeremiah DillonCB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out for season
Jordan Pride · DBJordan PrideDB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out for season
Ricky Harding · LBRicky HardingLB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.1
Out for season
Robert Briggs · RBRobert BriggsRB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → GD
0%−0.2
Out
Jaylen Himes · WRJaylen HimesWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → GD
0%−0.2
Available
Caleb Triplett · LBCaleb TriplettLB · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0
Available
Dante Devine · OLDante DevineOL · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0
Available
Greg Nunnery · OLGreg NunneryOL · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0
Available
Luke Rogers · OLLuke RogersOL · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0
Available
Will Smith · DLWill SmithDL · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → GD
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 5:07PTotal 55.5 → 57.5
MON 7:15PTotal 57.5 → 58.5
WED 9:45ATotal 58.5 → 57.5
THU 9:54ASpread −14.5 → −13.5

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread JMU	−14.5	−13.5	−13.8
Total	55.5	58.0	51.6
Moneyline JMU	−612	−575	−398

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

JMU −13.5 · 80% / 95%USM +13.5 · 20% / 5%

Over · 100% / 100%Under · 0% / 0%

DraftKings bettors, as of Sun 10:00 PM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 15-pt gap on JMU suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN2

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Clear: 66°
mph NNW · G5: 0
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestJMU 7d · USM 5d

Injury report

James Madison

Southern Miss

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew