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PREGAME · ESPN2 · DAVIS WADE STADIUM

5-4 · 3-4 SEC · ATS 2-7

Auburn

5-4

Kickoff in26:40:01

12:00 PM ET · ESPN2 · Davis Wade Stadium

4-5 · 2-5 SEC · ATS 4-5

Mississippi State

4-5

12:00 PM ET · ESPN2 · Davis Wade Stadium

50° · 5 mph NNE · 0% rain

Spread
AUB −2.5AUB −2.5
▼ 1 · MON 1:11P▼ 1 · MON 1:11P
Total
5050
Model 56.9Model 56.9
Model lineModel
MSST −1.4−1.4
Model total 56.9MSSTModel edge 3.9 pts on MSST vs the consensus now
Win probability
53%53%
was 53 · weekly runwas 53 · weekly run
At kickoff
50°50°
5 mph NNE · 0% rain5 mph NNE · 0% rain
Projected plays
136136
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/playFBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Where the model sees the game

Largest unit mismatches
  1. 01

    Mississippi State's run game vs the Auburn run defense

    Mississippi State gains +0.13 EPA a play on the run (34th); Auburn allows +0.12 (95th). About 31 such plays projected.

    MSST +4.7Model impact
  2. 02

    Auburn's passing game vs the Mississippi State pass defense

    Auburn gains +0.09 EPA a play on the pass (72nd); Mississippi State allows +0.20 (118th). About 36 such plays projected.

    AUB +4.6Model impact
  3. 03

    The pace fight

    MSST snaps every 22.7 s, AUB every 23.3 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.2 points. The model projects 136 plays against a 131 average.

    O 2.1Total impact

Late news

Auto-updating

  1. Lockhart cleared to play

    MSST LB · P → AVAILABLE

  2. AUB availability report

    Update 1 · conf:sec

  3. MSST availability report

    Update 1 · conf:sec

  4. Dawn Davenport assigned

    REPORTED · sideline · ESPN2

  5. Kirk Morrison assigned

    REPORTED · analyst · ESPN2

  6. Lowell Galindo assigned

    REPORTED · play by play · ESPN2

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