5-4 · 3-4 SEC · ATS 2-7

Auburn

5-4

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · ESPN2

Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville

4-5 · 2-5 SEC · ATS 4-5

Mississippi State

4-5

Spread: AUB −2.5; Open −3 · −115
Total: 50; Open 49.5 · o −110
Model line: MSST −1.4; Model total 56.9+3.9
Win probability: 53%
Projected score: 27.8–29.2; AUB – MSST
Projected plays: 136; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: AUB −2.5; open −3
Model: −1.4; MSST+3.9
Total: 50; model 56.9
Win probability: 53%; MSST

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Mississippi State run vs Auburn run Dvs AUB run DBiggest edge	34th+0.06	95th+0.04	31	MSST +4.7
Auburn pass vs Mississippi State pass Dvs MSST pass D	72nd−0.01	118th+0.10	36	AUB +4.6
Pace AUB 23.3 s · MSST 22.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays136 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	136	O 2.1
Auburn run vs Mississippi State run Dvs MSST run D	46th+0.03	43rd−0.06	32	MSST +1.1
Mississippi State pass vs Auburn pass Dvs AUB pass D	50th+0.03	44th−0.05	37	AUB +0.8

BIGGEST EDGE · MSST +4.7

Mississippi State's run game vs the Auburn run defense

Mississippi State gains +0.13 EPA a play on the run (34th); Auburn allows +0.12 (95th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMississippi State

MSST OFF

When Mississippi State has the ball

DefenseAuburn

AUB DEF

+0.1432ndEPA / play59th+0.04
45.9%27thSuccess rate55th41.3%
1.3532ndExplosiveness73rd1.30
+0.1334thRush EPA / play95th+0.12
+0.1350thPass EPA / dropback44th+0.05
50.6%29thStandard downs SR46th45.7%
32.2%38thPassing downs SR101st32.2%
3.2368thLine yards51st2.99
14.8%94thHavoc rate42nd15.5%
4.4162ndPoints / opportunity86th4.23
56%103rdRed zone TD rate81st64%

Mississippi State's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (38th vs 101st).

OffenseAuburn

AUB OFF

When Auburn has the ball

DefenseMississippi State

MSST DEF

+0.0859thEPA / play78th+0.08
41.8%71stSuccess rate77th43.1%
1.3345thExplosiveness61st1.29
+0.1146thRush EPA / play43rd+0.02
+0.0972ndPass EPA / dropback118th+0.20
45.1%99thStandard downs SR67th47.5%
33.4%28thPassing downs SR94th31.8%
3.2172ndLine yards59th3.06
15.3%103rdHavoc rate61st14.7%
4.2470thPoints / opportunity85th4.22
64%62ndRed zone TD rate41st55%

Auburn's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (28th vs 94th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	AUBAUB	MSSTMSST	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	23.3	22.7	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	69.6	66.9	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	53.0%	56.4%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+0.3%	+5.5%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	47.1%	50.7%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	25%	29%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:43	27:09	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.5	Own 29.1	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%